Tuesday, September 18, 2012

Deutsche Bank explains why we hoard gold



Deutsche Bank: GOLD IS MONEY
Matthew Boesler|Sep. 18, 2012, 5:53 PM
Business Insider (Video & images added by me)

Is gold money?

It's become a tireless debate: goldbugs seem to cling to the shiny yellow metal with a religious fervor not usually displayed by anyone toward other asset classes, and it's been known to frustrate some who don't share their views.

Gold often gets lumped in to investment forecasts with other "commodities" – real, consumable things like oil or food.

But Deutsche Bank analysts Daniel Brebner and Xiao Fu say gold is seriously misunderstood, and in a new report – wherein they update their gold target to $2000/oz sometime in the first half of 2013 – they explain that "gold is not really a commodity at all."



(From Fallacies)

The undisputable evidence for the case that gold is money, according to the Deutsche Bank analysts:

While it is included in the commodities basket it is in fact a medium of exchange and one that is officially recognised (if not publically used as such). We see gold as an officially recognised form of money for one primary reason: it is widely held by most of the world’s larger central banks as a component of reserves.

(From Euro Gold)

That's their take. But there's more – the analysts differentiate between "good money" (gold) and "bad money" (fiat paper currency):

We would go further however, and argue that gold could be characterised as ‘good’ money as opposed to ‘bad’ money which would be represented by many of today’s fiat currencies. In describing gold as such we refer to Gresham’s Law – when a government overvalues one type of money and undervalues another, the undervalued money (good) will leave the country or disappear from circulation into hoards, while the overvalued money (bad) will flood into circulation.



What's interesting is that all of the arguments against gold propogated by the anti-goldbugs – that it's not really a consumption good, that it serves no industrial purpose, etc. – are all the exact reasons why Brebner and Xiao call gold "good money."

The analysts elaborate on this point in the report:

In our view the ideal medium of exchange must balance the paradox of representing value while having little intrinsic value itself. There are very few media which can do this. Fiat currencies physically have no use other than that which is prescribed to them by government and accepted by the public. That fiat currencies cost little to produce is of a secondary concern and we believe, quite irrelevant to the primary purpose.

Gold is neither production good nor consumption good. Jewellery we see as a form of storage or hoarding (the people of Portugal have all but exhausted their personal gold stores – hoarded in the form of jewellery – having converted them to survive the crisis). If gold did have a meaningful commercial use we believe that it would make the metal less attractive as a medium of exchange as the value of the metal in whatever market it was used in could periodically interfere with its medium-of-exchange role...

Other characteristics are important of course in fulfilling the requirements for ‘good’ money: indestructibility, divisibility, transportability and universal acceptability.


Hat tip:

___________________


From Kicking the Hornets' Nest:

In Gresham's law there is good money and bad money. There are two moneys, not three. Good and bad, not good, so-so, and bad. The bad money drives the good money out of circulation. In other words, the bad money circulates (and becomes the medium of exchange) and the good money lies very still (becoming the store of value). Look at this latest Eurosystem quarterly report again:


And from The Return to Honest Money:

As I mentioned above, in the same way that a medium of exchange is to one extent or another also a store of value, stores of value are also to one extent or another media of exchange. The question is one of degree, and this is how, through market forces, we end up with "two monies." Being the focal store of value does not make something the best medium of exchange, and vice versa.

This might be a good time to take another look at the ECB quarterly statement. There it is, two monies. One on the left, one on the right. Separate roles.

[…]

This is how you have a true competing currency. Not two currencies competing for the medium of exchange crown. But a separate medium of savings competing against the medium of exchange for "pole position" on the 'Time=t' axis:



This is Freegold, and it is unfolding today. It requires no activism or political/legal changes at this point. It is, how do you say, baked into the cake already? And once again, these posts briefly explain how we aren't quite there yet, how Freegold is different from what he have today, even though it is "already in the pipeline."

Sincerely,
FOFOA


469 comments:

«Oldest   ‹Older   201 – 400 of 469   Newer›   Newest»
Indenture said...

Art: How are Savers out to screw Debtors? Please answer this specific question.

Motley Fool said...

ART

The proof? History is replete with examples of hard money regimes failing when repayment becomes too hard due too fixed amount of gold and expanding credit denominated in fixed amounts of gold. A impossible situation, leading to systemic crash.

But here is a thought.

Suspend disbelief for a moment, and assume I am right. What does that imply for the motives of 'evil freegolders'? ;)

TF

burningfiat said...

Kinda interesting (with pics):

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-09-23/gold-counterfeiting-goes-viral-10-tungsten-filled-gold-bars-are-discovered-manhattan

Get with the program:

http://www.seattletungsten.com/

/Burning

Indenture said...

"Savers" are lenders too"
Only if they save in Fiat. If they save in gold they are lending to no one.

Indenture said...

Freegolders, you are "lying about your motives".

Art: What motives?

Indenture said...

Art: So you want people to go to Seven-11 and hand the man behind the counter gold to buy a pack of smokes?

Motley Fool said...

ART

"ANSWER: If you Freegolders find repayment of your debts too burdensome, and liable to crash your "system," that's YOUR problem. For my part, I'm not interested in doing business with people who are trying to contrive a monetary system designed to inflate their debt [to me] away."

You are right, it is our problem, or rather becomes our problem, as either way the debt is defaulted on, and when it gets to systemic crash we are stuck holding the bill.

Yes, we advocate should buy physical gold because we want to steal their money. Makes perfect sense.

Ahhahah - This is my evil thieving laugh

TF

burningfiat said...

You're an evil genius MF!

Lure the stupid savers into gold, so there is more paper money from evil Central Banks for us!
MUAHAHAHA!

Motley Fool said...

burningfiat

I can't take all the credit, really, I can't. You know those central bankers, they'll simply create more. ;)

TF

Motley Fool said...

ART

Reality check : people have been using worthless tokens for aaaaaages.

We aren't trying to make anyone do anything. We are contemplating the path that is being headed in.

"Saving in gold will not save me or you from wars and economic and political crises which are CAUSED and PAID FOR by the fiat money system promoted by Freegolders."

Superficial thinking. Yes fiat can be used to finance wars...BUT only if people save their value in them. If people use gold, then that fiat is useless for funding war.

TF

burningfiat said...

"Saving in gold will not save me or you from wars and economic and political crises which are CAUSED and PAID FOR by the fiat money system promoted by Freegolders."

I agree, we have of course thought of that already that. Hence the EVIL in evil plan! MUHAHAHA.

All right, I'll leave the stage now for people with the patience for serious answers! Knock yourself out.

Anand Srivastava said...

Art: When you ask for Gold as a medium of exchange you are asking for paper promises for gold. Do you not see this simple thing?

We actually love gold. So we want our gold with us. And will not settle with getting paper promises from the govt.

In my view the current system is better than gold standard. The only pesky problem is the exorbitant privilege of USA. Once you remove that problem and reinstate RPG instead, we have got our ideal system. Yes, we will get it after the crisis.

While you need a benevolent dictator, whose successors will defraud you, as they have always done in the past. You guys don't really learn from history.

Anonymous said...

"Why do you want to inconvenience yourself this way? You enjoy making yourself suffer?"

Hahah! I don't even know what to say to this shit you're STILL spewing...

We've covered this SO MANY times here. Hello! Earth to Art. Bring us something new, please. Your thoughts are verging on CAVEMAN MODE, as in OLD. I know you love the CAPS LOCK, so I put them in here just for you:) You can thank me later or maybe tip me with a gold coin when you're transacting with them in fantasy land...

THICK AS A BRICK

Aquilus said...

Aristotle sent this classic to Carl a few months back.(this never gets old). It fully applies to Art:


"The insufferable bane of the internet near and wide -- infiltrating every arena of thought and discussion -- is an indomitable cadre of hapless pedants, each wielding a false notion.
__________ ______________ __________


Woe upon us that they, so ill-equiped, deign to commit themselves to our informational salvation. With thick and stubborn skull they hammer restlessly, yearning to replace the various masonry of solid foundations and structures with the particular cancerous notion occupying (singularly, with only personal reverence) the void between their own individual ears.

The sickening thuds of these thumping heads, wasting themselves against well-established bedrock, is an unsettling and unwelcome distraction from a forum of discussants intent upon an intelligent advance of inquiry, hypothesis, assessment, and a general improvement in understanding the ruling physics and working architectures of the real world.

___________ is Golden (for some much more than others.) Carl, get you some. --- Aristotle"

Motley Fool said...

ART

"ANSWER: If "fiat is useless for funding war" then it follows that it has become useless for everything else, too. That's spelled HYPERINFLATION and it is precisely the reason fiat money ought to be avoided."

You are forgetting the aspect of time here. IF fiat is used for war under freegold, then yes it will likely hyperinflate, and they'd still not have had their war. For that reason there is no sense in even trying, and so they won't.

The above reasoning is perhaps some of the strongest criticism against freegold, seeing as governments will be very annoyed at having their purse clipped.

"Your path leads to a world where your kind create money out of nothing without working for it, and the rest of us who have to bust our butts to earn your intrinsically "worthless tokens"."

My kind? Seriously? A poorly paid 'slave' living in a third world country is gonna rule the world? Right.

Reality check : Today you are being paid in worthless tokens AND saving in them, which means your savings grow to be worth less over time. Under freegold you would still be getting paid in worthless tokens ( our reality since 1933, or 1971 if you like) AND saving in gold which won't decrease in value over time.

Something which you have not grasped yet, is that even if everyone in the world were honest, hardworking people who would pay their debts if they could a gold standard would still not work.

TF

Michael dV said...

Art
you are annoying, go away...we have had plenty of nut case here lately and don't need more.
You should actually read before you comment, no one here is advocating anything, ya gotta go to ZH for that...Here we are just observing. No plots, no forcing, not even any encouraging (except me now asking you to leave, (wow that was a bit ironic) so if you must make up both your response and the comment you are responding to,...I don't know,,,try a creative writing class?

Aquilus said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Aquilus said...

For newbies

1. Art hopelessly cannot grasp the fact that he advocates a debasement of the value of gold that happens with anything that is used as currency (that can be lent, fractional reserve or not).

2. Art hopelessly cannot grasp the idea that currency must lubricate an economy not impede it. If businesses cannot obtain loans because "there's no currency available", the economy fails.

3. Art cannot understand the fact that gold as a currency was re-defeated in the 80s when the world decided to support the dollar's existence over returning to gold as currency

4. Art is not for gold (since his approach wound undervalue and undermind gold). He is simply against fiat currency. It is a drive based on morality and idealism. One cannot argue with such a person. There is nothing to be gained. Arguments don't matter. He will always come back with the same old tired argument: "Death to fiat".

This is my only comment regarding Art. I hope that when FOFOA returns, he continues the ban on him. There is no intelligent discussion to be had with him.

Aquilus

Motley Fool said...

ART

One last futile comment.

We do not have freegold at the moment.

What is being traded as 'gold' today is an assortment of promises, paper products, ETF's, etc and a tiny bit of the actual thing, gold.

When realization comes that only physical gold is in fact gold, and is treated as such, then we will have FREE gold.

TF

Ps. Believe what you like.

Motley Fool said...

ART

Holy shit you are thick.

Pricing gold and a 'promise for gold' the same is the problem.

This does not mean nothing would have prices, or even that gold would not have a price, just that actual damned gold would have a different price than a promise for gold that does not exist, which is worthless.

Lay off the drugs man.

TF

Motley Fool said...

Sorry board. Excuse the language. Losing my temper due to be trolled. Stepping back now.

burningfiat said...

"I am for gold circulating as a competing currency alongside fiat, just like Ron Paul."

Well, I'm also for that. Let's try it. No problem, but how long will it last? Will bad money not drive good money out of circulation?

I don't get how Gresham law is a really fundamental observation for our kind, while it is completely ignored in your lots universe...

Nickelsaver said...

Let's summarize:

Art (and those like him) advocate, not only to keep paper gold, but for the regulation and enforcement of it.

They're solution is to, in effect, attempt to alter and or regulate human behavior. A tact which amounts to both embracing and rejecting government at the same time. Highly illogical!

Freegold is simply a recognition that humans are going to do what they are going to do. And that the path that humans are currently on is one that is leading to Freegold.

As TF likes to say "We see the world as we are, not as it is"

burningfiat said...

Art,

No I really want to try it (again). Really! I just anticipate that there will only go a relatively short time before gold is mostly not circulating (people using it for saving) while fiat will circulate as MoE.

I am for choice. Just circulate all your gold. Knock yourself out, but I am allowed to speculate on the outcome, right?

Well, time to step back as MF said (again) ;)

Woland said...

"A scientific truth does not triumph by convincing its
opponents and making them see the light, but rather
because its opponents eventually die, and a new
generation grows up that is familiar with it".

Max Planck

The sociology of science, a field pioneered by Thomas
Merton, confirms the observations of Planck, one of the
great geniuses of 20th century physics. You are currently
experiencing this truth for yourselves. The fact that many
"open" minds here, with more or less help and effort, have
succeeded in overcoming this general tendency, does not
constitute a refutation of this fact. You can also read
Danny Kahnemann's "Thinking fast and slow" which arrives
once again at the same conclusion. But if you enjoy swimming
against a fast current, by all means, have at it!

Anand Srivastava said...

Art:

"3) A nonprofit national bank that issues gold-backed currency only but NOT debt- or credit-generated money."

Yes that gold backed currency is exactly like ETFs. They are also gold backed. Why do you think its different when the central bank issues the gold backed instrument.

ANSWER: What's your problem? Why do you want to use bad money when you can use good money? Why don't you at least want to have the CHOICE of what to use for money?

I don't really see any difference between gold backed currency or pure fiat currency. BOTH devalue. Both operate under a Govt that causes deficits. Both get bad reserves to produce more currency. No I don't see a difference, maybe you can.

I would see a difference if the only currency that was allowed was gold coins. Not credit money at all. But that does not work. It is awfully hard to use. And gold is much to expensive to pay for anything cheap in gold coins.

Please come back down to earth, we are waiting for you :-). Wake up and smell the coffee. You have been living in a dreamworld for too long.

Indenture said...

Fool: I have placed your words on my 'Polite Scale' and ran the numbers through the 'Manners Computer'.
The results are in: Well said!

burningfiat said...

All,

Lovely, so Art would act as all other people by spending the paper and saving the gold.
But, instead of waking our minds up to the fact that fiat and its equivalents is no good as a savings medium and just use what already is (gold), we have to FORCE onto the world an unnatural MoE to cram this "philosophy of life" into our stubborn skulls.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XO0pcWxcROI

Dante_Eu said...

@Art:

I'm only layman so this is how I see it in laymans terms:

FreeGold -> Free(dom of)Gold

Gold Standard -> Enslavement of Gold by Government.

Simple as that.

BTW, if you see me as an "Elite"...oh boy oh boy...then, this planet is truly f#@¤§d. :-)

Motley Fool said...

Indenture

Perhaps that is because you only saw the heavily redacted version. ;)

TF

Anonymous said...

Haiku for Art:

When gold is lent out
This surely impedes
store of value functioning


Another one:

Much time has passed by
Yet still Butt-hurt from the ban
I return to troll

Nickelsaver said...

"I am for gold circulating as a competing currency alongside fiat, just like Ron Paul."

Um, yeah that's called paper gold.

KnallGold said...

Hard money national socialist?

burningfiat said...

"Personally, I would only spend fiat equivalents and keep the gold."

"Resistance to reality is futile."

Yes.

Dante_Eu said...

Proud to be exposed as an evil, gold hoarding - and brainwashed - Elitist!

Thank You!\Sir Dante

burningfiat said...

Dear Sir Dante,

Yes, that was quite refreshing.
I and my fellow elite banker friends will have quite a laugh about this little incident down at the lodge later this week.
We will most probably laugh a lot like this:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EffPnse4WQs

Cheerio,
Sir Burning

Aaron said...

Hi FOFOA-

I figured I'd save you some effort when you finally get back to your computer this evening, by reminding our kind readers of your position on all things ART. That way you can focus your energy on finding that delete button should you feel moved to do so (assuming our little problem persists).

FOFOA said...
Cliff's Notes from the above:

Art is banned from commenting on all future and past posts. If he posts a comment, I will delete it on sight. I won't even read it. But because he's not quite as bad as the other two I banned, and because a few of the other "anti-conceptual mentalities" here are fans of Art's form of logic, he can continue to post comments on this thread, within a reasonable tolerance.

I warned Art, and he continued onward. He has used very offensive language aimed at me and my guests. And he has professed that his mission is "to prove that Freegold is FRAUD and to save people from buying your lies." Fine. But he can do that elsewhere. He is no longer going to interrupt, pollute and derail the conversation in which most people come here to engage. This blog, fortunately, is not a tribute to Art.

Sincerely,
FOFOA

ciaoant1 said...

http://www.nysun.com/editorials/germany-eyes-gold-standard/87997/

Not 100% alligned to the freegold theory, but it is interesting that articles like that are starting to gain traction. Deutsche Bank’s report did strike a chord, didn't it?

ciaoant1 said...

From the article:

"Deutsche Bank’s report is “Gold: Adjusting for Zero.” It reckons we’re in a situation that is “Zero for growth, yield, velocity and confidence.” It says: “We believe there are nearly zero real options available to global policy-makers. The world needs growth and is willing to go to extraordinary lengths to get it.” It forecasts bluntly that the value of the dollar will plummet in the first half of 2013 to less than a 2,000th of an ounce of gold. It reckons “the growth in supply of fiat currencies such as the USD will remain an important driver.”

That’s just for openers. The report then goes on to assert that gold is misunderstood and doesn’t really belong in the basket of “commodities” used by so many economists. Gold is money, according to the Deutsche Bank. Says it: “We would go further however, and argue that gold could be characterised as ‘good’ money as opposed to ‘bad’ money which would be represented by many of today’s fiat currencies.” It refers to Gresham’s Law and suggests “the undervalued money (good) will leave the country or disappear from circulation into hoards, while the overvalued money (bad) will flood into circulation.”"

Sam said...

A solution without timing is like getting the correct time from a broken clock. Unless the US government is positioned to benefit from the coming of freegold, I expect indefinite deferment to this final outcome. I expect there are plans and schemes thought out well into the future that we aren’t aware of.
After much analysis I can’t see any holes in the teachings of A/FOA/FOFOA. As a physical gold holder and a libertarian I’m all for the coming of free gold. It’s just that we only know what we are allowed to see.
FOA believed structural support for the dollar came to an end in 2000 but as we all know China came along. After a decade it seems once again that structural support for the dollar is gone. Is China the only player that needed more time? Is this the final chapter, or will there be many more twists and turns before this story is over?

-Sam

kobajashi said...

dear readers,

I am a long time reader, little poster to the comments of this blog because i actually have little more to add!!
I am not financially educated and its here for most that i try to learn as much as i can and have more questions than answers.
But because of to little time, i can most even not ask the questions i have.
This is because all the spare time i have, besides all day's jobs like work and house and family and so on, i try to read as much as i can on this blog.

But still i have to say i did not even read half of all the blog articles on this briljant site. Not even close (lets say maybe 1/4th).
This is because from end of 2010 i try to read every new article with comments and between i try to read older articles.
On other point is that i do not have Englisch language as my motherlanguage…

So now i really wanted to actually post a question…
Maybe not very on topic because i am 2 posts behind reading but hell :-)

This all been said … here is my question:

Where do central bankers have there origin!! how do you become central banker? (do you study for it? i don't think so!) and who is the real owner of this central bank's gold?
I mean, like in a factory, you have a director but he does not "own" the factory… so does the "central banker" actually "own" the bank? (or do they "own" another big bank because i mean to know that central banks were formed from other banks coorperating?)
I actually do know that banks were the original goldsmith's and they got there fortunes from giving more "gold-reciepts" than actual gold and stuff like that, but what i want to know is … how did central bankers get so powerfull and is it all generational whealth that stays in the same circle or somthing like that?
How the hell do you manage to actually get possetion of 2000+ tons of gold and be able to put up a system of fiat money and make everybody believe this is the real sh.t?? Are we humans so stupid??

The reason why i ask this is because i do think i get where "old money" gets there fortunes (middle ages crusades, knights, landlords, …??)
and i also get where oil sheikes get there whealth (SOME OF THEM EARN 50 000 000 A DAY!!!! unbelieveble, i am a shrimp :-)

http://www.cnbcmagazine.com/story/the-worlds-richest-arabs/111/1/

But i really want to know more about the foggy concept of "central banker"

Grtz

Koba

Motley Fool said...

Sam

As to benefit, the USG will be able to hyperinflate their debts away and keep their stock of gold. This means all past benefits received will accrue, in addition to having a sizable warchest.

Additionally it would seem the USG has purposefully not allowed their vast oil resources to be developed fully, while they used up external resources.

I would say these named benefits should count for something.

As to timing, we will have to see. The future is unknowable, yet I cannot fathom that there exists another country with the human and natural resources to feed this exponentially growing monster much longer to buy time.

TF

Motley Fool said...

kobajashi

In theory the people of the country own the gold in the central bank, in practice the government does.

Central banks were established by mandate of governments; they may be thought of as a branch of government in addition to the judicial, administrative and military branches.

To get possession of that much gold you need a whole country's resources at your disposal, as government does.

As to how one becomes a central banker...good question. :)

TF

ampmfix said...

Won't a full blown WWIII delay freegold by another decade?

Woland said...

Hello Kobajashi:

I am sure you know the history of your country far better
than I could hope to. That said, up until 1853, Japan was
"sakoku" or literally "locked country", and had hardly any
contact or trade with the outside world. As such, being
virtually totally independent of foreign trade, it has no
need for trade settlement with the outside world. It was
a nearly feudal country without a strong central government.
Given that fact, it is not surprising that it had no central
bank. With the arrival of Commodore Perry's gunboats
in 1853, all that changed, a central government under a
strong emperor developed, and a rapid industrialization
and foreign trade began. At that point, the need for a
means of settling trade became necessary, resulting in the
need for a central bank to deal, on an equal basis, with
already existing foreign central banks of other trading
partners.
This is only a small part of the answer to your question,
but it is all I have time for at the moment. Perhaps other
readers can add to the explanation of how the "internal"
desire for a central bank by private banking interests
arises, as it did in the US in 1913.

Cheers.




Michael dV said...

I am going to have to read this a few times as well as the articles that this one references BUT...this is one of the concepts that needs to be understood when we ask TIMING questions.
from ZH I give you:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-09-23/fed-has-another-39-trillion-qe-go-least

a bit about shadow banking and hyperinflation risk, M2 and some thoughts about quantities...

Rui said...

@ Indenture

If I have to hold onto fiat for a length of time, and I know fiat depreciates, then I won't hold onto fiat for a length of time.

FIAT is a hot potato. It burns b/c bankers are constantly depreciating it. If holder A flips it to holder B, A is merely trying to avoid having the FIAT burning down to ashes (depreciating to zero) in his hand so A lets it be sucker B's problem. How much will B gets burned? It depends how soon he flips it to another sucker as you point out - a time factor.

It's still a sucker game where bankers benefit while watching with amusement how everyone else flips the FIAT to each other.


@ Michael H

Deflation = holders of cash get increased purchasing power.
... ...
So let me get this straight: you think that theft through inflation is the scourge of humanity, but you would be perfectly OK with theft through deflation?

Oh, that's right. Deflation would benefit you, so you think it is universally good, while you feel screwed by inflation so it must be a universal evil.


When the economy grows the productivity improves. As a result more and better goods are produced and brought to the market. Since price is decided by supply and demand, more supply naturally leads to price deflation.

This is how price discovery works. Such natural deflation lets EVERYONE buy more and better goods so EVERYONE's standard of living goes up. It has nothing to do with theft or my own preference.

Rui said...

@ victorthecleaner

Which has been refuted empirically using 200+ years of pre-1922 gold standard data (Barsky-Summers). Under the gold standard, the general price level fluctuated wildly. Even in the long term average, there was no mild deflation. ... ... It's a fairy tale.

I have described how economy growth, improved productivity and supply & demand dynamics work together to create deflation. It's simple and yet makes sense.

You claimed that 200+ years of history refuted it. Well, if I have all the data I would like to do a break down of those years.

Were they all growth years? Were there any disruptions such as wars, natural disaters or new exploration that brought in extra gold to disrupt the monetary system? Was FRL rampant in any period that eroded the sytem?

I would draw a conclusion after that, and I doubt it'd be different.

Rui said...

Your problem is that you are living in a Paradise, and you need to come down to earth, ... ... Don't give us utopian answers, that it will be the best system. Tell us how we will move from current system to your preferred system, without some benevolent dictator.

How do we move over there? People don't learn until they hit sth hard so I expect bumps, big bumps. We will move there after a currency crisis kills the faith in US$.

Don't expect ECB/EURO for rescue. They themselves are in trouble already. Check how Germany, one of the rare EU nations that still save, is upset about ECB's unlimited bond purchase. Check how Bulgaria wants no part of Euro b/c they don't know who they'd have to bail out.

If they are fed up with PIIGS now, they sure as heck won't have appetite or capaciy for US next. EURO zone will probably end up with Germany cutting tie with the debtor nations at some point.

Check news on how BRIC are arranging swap deals with each other on the other hand. That's where the world is heading.

Why do Russia and China do a swap for example? B/c Russians can buy Chinese products with RMBs and Chinese can buy Russia's crude / gas with RUBLES. It's mutual beneficial, so it has far better chance to succeed than that one-way banker-screw-all street.

These swaps will evolve into the next global gold backed trade system. A production-less US (and EU for that matter) will not be able to participate b/c US offers little to trade.

Whatever amount of gold left in Fort Knox is not gonna help. If nation always imports far more than it exports, the gold reserve will deplete.

It's when US is left in the lone mass-inflation corner that people may finally come to their sense that they have to produce before they consume and need less debt not more,

It's then they may be willing to get off their butt to work rather than borrow & consume, and realize what Rui says is not utopian but common sense.

Anonymous said...

Rui,

Ideally the currency is meant to be a "hot potato" and to flow to lubricate the economy. This is a good thing. We wont be saving this tasty potato, because it can potentially spoil with time(under poor management). We simply save in gold, instead, and that renders the whole "depreciating fiat" thing(fear)redundant. After all, it's not like currency depreciates over night in a stable economy. Most of us can handle a small amount of inflation over a small amount of time. Non-issue if you save for the long-term in gold.

No suckers required for this potato salad;)


It may not be perfect, but I see it as a nice compromise between the money camps.

We could touch on the natural(currency)balance mechanism built into FG, but I know we've discussed this with you before. Again, the concept may not quite click yet, or seem to be up to par with what you envision, but it's much better than what we have now.

Gold - If you need me, I'll be Up In Her Room planting The Seeds

Anonymous said...

"Whatever amount of gold left in Fort Knox is not gonna help. If nation always imports far more than it exports, the gold reserve will deplete."

Exactly! and without the exorbitant (US) privilege of today, this will exterminate any politician or government that fails to balance their ship. Lessons learned and balance restored and then maintained in the future.

Gotta Keep The Dogs Away

Anand Srivastava said...

Art: Yeah you have a lot of faith in our chosen representatives. You must love Barack Obama and George Bush, etc etc.

For me I would be happy if I could force the govt on a ration :-). And Freegold does that. But it does required everybody to understand that Fiat is not a good Store Of Value. Even the Gold Bugs who think that Gold Currency is great as a Store Of Value.

Anand Srivastava said...

Rui:
"These swaps will evolve into the next global gold backed trade system."

Not really. RPG is not a gold backed system. It is just measuring currencies in gold. Nothing more nothing less.

For creating a gold backed trade system you have to do something. For RPG you don't have to do anything, it will evolve by itself.

After the shock of debt and revaluation of gold, people will realize that gold is the best Saving vehicle, not realizing that the revaluation was a one time event. They will start saving their surplus in gold. This will cause gold to flow into countries that have a surplus production.

Since gold will automatically balance most of the trade, it will also become directly related to the strength of a currency. RPG will be just an acceptance of the natural order.

Make no mistake the future will have fiats everywhere, although more likely modeled after Euro. Euro is a Gold based currency but does not back the currency with gold. This is the ideal situation. Gold is free in this case.

Gold standard actually enslaves gold by fixing a price to it. This is done because govts hate gold. Unfortunately Gold Bugs and HMS people don't realize that they are playing straight in the hands of monopolists.

Anyway the future is on an unalterable course.

Woland said...

A strange (and amusing) side effect of the deletion of Art
from the thread is that we now appear to be slightly deranged
folk, (as in the play "Harvey") engaging in an extended conver-
sation with an invisible rabbit. Anyway, foreheads and walls
can now slowly recover.

DP said...

Guess we'll survive this anguish of separation.

Woland said...

Nice, DP! Good for walls, for foreheads, not so much.

The following link if for those very few, like Victor, and
perhaps Fofoa, who like to play treasure hunt now and
then.

If you google - "Petroleum Club reaches Landmark, George
Alcorn" - you'll get a picture of the circle of friends and
business acquaintances in which FOA moved. this is the
place where he played poker, when in Houston, and where
you would not be able to have "a very private conversation"
with him. Probably, when he walked in, a swarm of friends
would descend upon someone everybody liked. That's just
me, guessing.

Woland said...

Last comment for today. PCOH puts out an annual Yearbook.
Neat. and there are 2 for sale on Ebay right now, 1970 and
1984. I think they have a history of past presidents in there.
Be sure to ask for your Fofoa discount!

Dr. Octagon said...

For those interested in reading the original article from Deutsche Bank, I believe this is it: http://gata.org/files/DeutscheBankReport-09-18-2012.pdf

MnMark said...

Eric Janszen posted this on his iTulip discussion forum about his conversations with government officials about gold:

I've discovered at the various meetings I've had with Fed economists and others who attend meetings there that there is no faster way to clear the table after dessert than to bring up the topic of gold.

They really, really, really do not like to talk about gold.

But over the years some have learned that I'm not a journalist but an analyst; I'm not going to quote them on my web site to create controversy and traffic for me and headaches for them. That's not our business model. So one or two have opened up a bit.

One official gave me his personal and unofficial thoughts on what might happen in the highly, no extremely, no next to impossible event that the USD is officially associated with gold in some fashion some day off in the nearly infinite future. With all of those qualifications preceding his comment, he went on to give his opinion. It was an enlightening conversation and a window into a thought process.

It was not what I expected. Hint: No high taxation as I have been discussing here since 2001. The expectation is that a high gold tax rate will criminalize gold and create a black market, the opposite of what they want. They want an optimal tax rate on gold that generates the highest tax receipts for the IRS but without creating a black market. He pointed me to this paper. In fact there is concern, he said, that the existing classification of gold as a collectible may cause the tax rate to be too high if the gold price keeps rising; as the gold price rises, so does the incentive for gold holders and dealers to conspire to evade taxes.

Hill C said...

We continue to set up for a huge sell off in gold (aka buying opportunity):

> GLD inventory surging
> Oil price has dropped 10% and continues to fall
> Long term/short term treasury yield spread has plenty of room to be squeezed via operation twist

Is this the big flush?

Sam said...

Motley Fool.
Thanks for your response. The huge increase in the value of our gold holdings, the destruction of our fiat based debts, and the wiping out of our trade deficit with the sudden and unexpected discovery of huge oil reserves would work nicely for the USG. In the meantime, I suppose some propaganda would need to be released showing that fossil fuels now in fact don’t hurt the environment.

With that scenario as a possibility, I suspect that the USG will play this out as slowly and methodically as it can, but would not try to prevent freegold from inevitably happening in the medium term. “Another” first caught my attention because he said “let’s see where we are going.” I love that line because it doesn’t tell you to push for something or fight for a cause it just says this is where the currents lead lets get prepared. It’s so much more enjoyable to study where we are going naturally instead of trying to be an activist of change.

Winters said...

The Australian RBA wants to phase out $50/$100 because they think pensioners are hoarding under their mattress to pass means tests on the pension. link

I thought this was strange:

"Mr Mair said that in 1996 when the green plastic $100 note replaced the grey paper note, the Martin Place headquarters of the Reserve received regular visits from retirees wanting to withdraw large quantities of the new notes. He said the commercial banks had sent them to the Reserve because they did not have enough $100 notes on hand."

I don't understand how shrimps were turning up to the RBA to get phyiscal notes. Did they take a bank cheque from the commerical bank and cash it for base money at the RBA?

So if govt's start to phase out this physical base money - does that make it harder to tell the difference between base money and credit money? or it just means the base money stock dwindles and people are pushed into using credit money more?

Winters said...

and while I'm here: "One of my reader's actual hoard" that is quite a nice stash of coins!
Do readers here hoard coins or bars? I hold small bars predominantly. Recent comments on ZH or here after the Tungsten story indicate people think coins are better in that regard since they are too small to be worth counterfeiting.
Any thoughts re: reasons to (evilly) hoard bars vs coins?

enough said...

GLD

I'm sure if anyone had some thoughts as to what is going on with this massive, rapid inventory build, they would share it.....

Added another 9 tonnes today......

At the same time these very same authorized participants are building the largest comex paper short position in over year.

I guess this is nothing out of the ordinary or someone would comment beyond sell signal/buy signal

One Bad Adder said...

Art? (Part 1)

Well! - that was 10 minutes of my ever-shortening lifespan I'll never get back.ie: scrolling up through the commentary trying to "find" Arts post which drew the angst of all-and-sundry.
I could delve further however, given that many of the luminaries who comment here have already put it (him) to bed, I'll spare myself the trouble.

What piqued my interest? At first I'd thought "Art" was referring to the Brush, Paint and Canvas variety ...and it's THIS type of Art that I'd hoped the discussion had focused upon, so FWIW I think it may be a worthwhile exercise to look at GOLD ...from an Art (the brush, paint variety) perspective to try and establish some parallels.

The generic term "ART" is similar to generic "GOLD" in that those without a keen interest in the subject-matter blithely bundle it all together and file it away in a mental Folder labelled as such.
We who gather here however have disected, cauterised, and vivisected GOLD to the point that our GOLD Folder is bulging with sub-folders representing the various facets of our "different" versions of what GOLD per-se represents.

MY own mental sub-folders relative to GOLD include: -
Gold in possession.
Gold in allocated accounts.
Gold in unallocated accounts.
Gold certificate programmes.
Gold mining shares.
Gold futures contracts.
Gold under Central-bank management ...etc.

We also break down some of these areas into 24, 22, 18 etc Carat varieties of GOLD ...not to mention the many and various numismatic versions of Gold.
When viewed en-globo all this presents as a plethora of information which to the uninitiated may seem a "bridge-too-far" when starting out on a quest to "know" Gold.
The Art world is similar ...however far more all-encompassing than is GOLD.

We could extend our comparison and include Music, Crafts etc but for the sake of the exercise we'll stick to the Brush, Paint, Canvas form of ART ...so therefore with our hosts blessing and given my limited knowledge of the subject I'll sully forth (as time permits) and try and formulate a comparable list of ART: - (cont)

MnMark said...

How come Blondie's blog (http://forafistfulofdollars.blogspot.com) disappeared?

John said...

@ Winters: RE: the hoarding of coins vs bars and counterfeiting.

My decided preference is for coins and particularly now the so-called fractional coins such as the Sovereigns, Swiss Helvetias, etc.
I have a European friend that frequents a dealer in Geneva for procurement of large quantities of Swiss Helvetias...in the process he has gotten to know this dealer well and the topic of counterfeiting has come up. Interestingly, he said there are quite a few "fake" 20 Franc European coins that circulate and he proceeded to show himfew that he kept segregated in a drawer. The difference however was that these coins were all gold....meaning at the time the were counterfeited (some 100 years ago) the gold value of the coin was less than the stamped currency value on each coin which was what provided the incentive to the counterfeiter. He said that today many dealers don't even bother separating these old fakes because they are worth (in gold) just as much as the real ones

Phat Repat said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
John said...

@ Winters: Coins vs bars ...continued

This dealer also added that he has researched with various refiners and metal Fabricators and his findings indicated that at present metal prices it would cost more to fabricate a fake "Helvetia/Vrenelli" using base metal than what a genuine gold version would be worth....something to keep in mind when selecting your favored version of physical. In my opinion, when the respective premiums are roughly equivalent, the widely recognized coin, particularly those os the smaller sized variety are the way to go vs the generic bars.

Phat Repat said...

As if it wasn't enough to worry about Tungsten-filled gold bars, we now have this article from ZH: Get Your Fake Tungsten-Filled Gold Coins Here

Just in time for the holidays! Now where is my NDA device?

Edit: Link didn't come through.

Michael H said...

enough,

"Added another 9 tonnes today......

At the same time these very same authorized participants are building the largest comex paper short position in over year."


In one of Bron's comments, he describes the function of the comex 'paper shorts' as follows: when investor demand on the comex is bullish, the BBs sell metal contracts (so-called 'paper shorts') to the retail investors on the comex and cover their positions in the over-the-counter market. I.e. they are not naked shorts.

So these two events together, growing GLD inventory and growing BB comex short position, both point to increasing demand for 'gold' products by retail investors, I think.

Michael dV said...

does anyone have knowledge about some of the (very pricey) devices that use flourescent ion (?) technology? If they only measure surface composition then one would need a couple of tests to be certain of the content.
If there was a quick, one shot way to assess one's collection it would be worth it to rent or lease the thing for a few days.

J said...

"An official of the State Bank of Vietnam has also noted that unlike fertilizer or petroleum products, gold is not the essential goods. While the price fluctuations of essential goods would affect the macro economy, the gold price fluctuations would not cause negative effects to the majority of people."

SBV hopes 13 tons of gold can help cool gold market down

Phat Repat said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Phat Repat said...

I don't believe there is much to the counterfeit story and even less in reality. However, if one does end up in my collection, well, then it is TEOTWAWKI. ;-)

The only fake I have ever encountered was with a 1 oz silver Panda. And there it was a pretty obvious fake (and returned to the dealer where I received a full refund and apologies). Of course, credibility was shot and no more purchases from that individual. If purchasing from reputable dealers buying directly from the mint, it shouldn't be an issue.

Edit: Sheesh, TEOTWAWKI not TEOTAWKI Now back to the bottle...

Anonymous said...


enough,

deciphering the short-term moves is a bit like reading tea leaves - not enough statistics to be sure of anything.

If the BBs are short COMEX gold, this might indicate that the hot (=stupid) money is long COMEX gold. Those people who expect 1970s style price inflation from QE3, but nothing really serious perhaps? Those who are in for a quick trade in the (paper) inflation hedge?

If true, then perhaps this time it is hot money buying GLD and the APs delivering it to them. So apparently, there is perfectly enough physical gold around for now. I wonder who is selling.

Victor

Michael dV said...

Victor
per J above...Vietnam would be one party selling. I cannot imagine any CB would actually sell as an independent act....perhaps they are just trying to 'calm' their local market???
Perhaps we are seeing some secret CB coordinated effort to reassure the world that gold is in abundance.

ampmfix said...

Winters,

I prefer coins than bars because it makes my assay easier (I look at density of coins I know well like Krugs, Mexican, sov and swiss, by dimensions and weight). Also because it might be easier to sell one day if I need to sell outside of the professional dealers...

Michael dV,

Concerning x-ray fluorescence I looked at it in the past and the Niton handheld looked great but around 28k$ (it was hard getting the quote)... This type of device is the choice of miners on the field, and the beutiful thing is that they give you a list of all the materials that compose the sample, by percentage. See here a comparative:
http://www.labcompare.com/Spectroscopy/179-Portable-XRF-Analyzer-Handheld-XRF-Analyzer/

I will try to buy an ultrasound device, some go for as low as 150$, in case I buy some bars.

ampmfix said...

On the counterfeiting I found out thru my dealer that the most counterfeit coin in history known to him was the 50 peso Mexican coin, which in fact is my favorite large coin (my profile icon picture). I don't think I have a fake among the ones I own although some weight a little less (this coin was heavily circulated so you can expect some wear out).

M said...

@ Rui

I always thought the Euro architects meant 2% Austrian inflation. (2% expansion of meduim of exchange regardless of prices of anything)

Freedgold would/could result in fiat appreciation as savers money is not bidding up nearly as much , the price of anything.

DP said...

What the Euro-architects meant exactly by their "2% inflation" target is right here in black & white for all to see.

Introduction
Consumer price inflation in the euro area is measured by the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP). The HICP is compiled by Eurostat and the national statistical institutes in accordance with harmonised statistical methods.
The ECB aims to maintain annual inflation rates as measured by the HICP below, but close to, 2% over the medium term (see Monetary policy). The HICP is also used in assessing whether a country is ready to join the euro area (see Convergence criteria).

M said...

@ freegolders

There is some hard money guys (Rui and Peter schiff) that do not view the gold standard as gold fixed to fiat. They view it as fiat fixed to gold. ( there can only be as much fiat as there is gold".)This way, they sidestep us freegolders view that gold is controlled by a central bank under a gold standard because they say the central bank is controlled by gold.

Peter Schiff is a nationalistic American and that is why he gets caught up in the "gold standard" rhetoric. If he was born anywhere else, he would be a freegolder.

The simple fact is, the basic concept of freegold is has been going on since the beginning of time. Producers in banana republics never save in the local currency and that is why price inflation shows up so fast in those countries. These producers separatete their meduim of exchange and store of value already and will continue to do so.

M said...

@ DP

You are the most moneterist freegolder out there so it doesn't surprise me that you brought that up.

Did Jack Rauff have anything to do with this "2% price inflation targeting" BS ?

I doubt it.

I don't see any need for it. Unless there is some good evidence out there that suggests targeting price inflation will result in the right expansion of the meduim of exchange to support the economy.

Motley Fool said...

M

There is some good evidence, but I can't recall right now where to look. Perhaps someone else can help.

From memory, deflation in money sets up a different incentive in man, which worsens a deflationary cycle, and leads to productive contraction.

Furthermore if we assume the above is bad then a fixed increase in money supply will be good sometimes ( when growth is less than the fixed rate) and bad at others ( when growth is more than the fixed rate. By targeting real growth + 2% one avoids the deflationary cycle with a consistent and reasonable tool.

Let's not argue morality. Let's simply assume that surplus will be saved in gold and unaffected by inflation, while income will be easier to renegotiate to keep up if the targeted rate is known and small, and is consistently achieved.

It's not perfect, but we don't live in a perfect world.

TF

M said...

@ MF

I don't have a problem with 2% or 5% MOE inflation. But outright price inflation targeting is too keynesian to make sense.

A metric based on population , productivity and the the price of gold would make more sense.

But maybe there is a good explanation for it. I havnt seen it yet.

Michael H said...

M,

"I don't have a problem with 2% or 5% MOE inflation. But outright price inflation targeting is too keynesian to make sense.

A metric based on population , productivity and the the price of gold would make more sense.

But maybe there is a good explanation for it. I havnt seen it yet."


This issue seems so obvious to me that I'm not sure why there is even a question.

Picture a 5% MoE 'quantity' inflation when the economy is completely stagnant, or contracting. Wouldn't you expect price inflation of, or exceeding, 5%?

Nevermind any sudden changes in the velocity of money, which would affect its purchasing power without a corresponding change in its quantity.

As for using 'productivity' as a target: how do you measure it?

And if the price of gold floats against the currency, why would it be an input into the monetary policy?

The basic question is: what atribute of the MoE do you care about (the second question is what can you measure and act upon).

I think it should be ovbious that a holder of MoE only knows one thing: how much that MoE will buy. So it makes sense for the central bank to try to control that one aspect of the currency that people care about.

The 2% inflation, as opposed to totally stable prices, can be attributed to either:

a) a hedge against errors in measurements and policy, i.e. it's better to err on the side of inflation than to risk even a little inflation, for the general economic good.

or

b) bankers sticking it to you, saying 'I know these suckers will accept a 2% inflation, so I'm going to skim that off the top'.

DP said...

Definition for monetarist: an advocate of the theory that economic fluctuations are caused by increases or decreases in the supply of money

This says nothing about the demand for money (velocity), only the quantity in the system. If MV=PQ, how can any thinking person totally ignore V and listen only to M?

I am an advocate for monetary authorities responding to the market's demand for money, which in the case of the ECB means increasing the quantity of money in the system if general prices are falling, and tightening the supply if general prices are rising.

If you're looking for what happens if a monetary authority remains behind the curve when it comes to responding to consumer price deflation, look no further than the BoJ for the last couple decades.

There is good reason for a 2% target rate of consumer price inflation, and it's contained in the other half of the Maastrict Stability pact.

I produce and provide an apple. I get paid an apple's worth of currency. I store this until I need it. I expect to get roughly the value of an apple with that currency when the day of spending finally comes. I will actually get a little less than an apple. Stupid me. I should have bought an apple's worth of gold right away instead of keeping the credit for so long.

enough said...

COT 9/21 specs up longs by 16,800 commercials up shorts by 23,000

http://news.goldseek.com/COT/1348255977.php

COT 9/14 specs add 14,800 to longs and commercials add 31,000 to shorts

http://news.goldseek.com/COT/1347651186.php

9/7 specs add 13,600 to longs and commercials add 23,000 to shorts

http://news.goldseek.com/COT/1347046394.php

commercials have added 86,000 futures and options shorts in past 3 weeks

Issas Ekeret said...

MTM Friday

J said...

Paraguay got the memo

Data from the International Monetary Fund on Tuesday showed South Korea raised its holdings of gold by nearly 16 tonnes in July, along with Paraguay, which raised its reserves in July from a few thousand ounces to more than 8 tonnes, continuing the trend among central banks to hold more bullion.
..
Paraguay raised its holdings by 7.527 tonnes to 8.194 tonnes

PRECIOUS-Gold edges up; central banks add to holdings


Reserves of foreign exchange and gold
#89 Paraguay $ 5,096,000,000 31 December 2011 est.

Phat Repat said...

Not sure if anyone follows Harvey Organ but here are a couple of snippets from his site for 24SEP (bold = my emphasis):

"The two ETF's that I follow are the GLD and SLV. You must be very careful in trading these vehicles as these funds do not have any beneficial gold or silver behind them. They probably have only paper claims and when the dust settles, on a collapse, there will be countless class action lawsuits trying to recover your lost investment.
There is now evidence that the GLD and SLV are paper settling on the comex.

Thus a default at either of the LBMA, or Comex will trigger a catastrophic event.

...

Today, we gained a massive 9.05 tonnes of gold. On Friday, we gained 9.35 tonnes following on the heels of a big 3.01 tonnes addition on Thursday and another gain of 2.11 tonnes of gold into the GLD on Wednesday.The GLD boys are the best at procuring "physical" gold in a hurry!!
Since Wednesday, a total of 23.52 tonnes of gold has been added. It took 8 weeks for Sprott to acquire a small percentage of this quantity and yet these guys can obtain the metal at the flick of a switch. And many of you think that this vehicle has real metal?"

VTC? Thoughts?

Michael H said...

Phat,

On Harvey Organ, read the comments below Chris Martenson's interview:

http://www.peakprosperity.com/blog/harvey-organ-get-physical-gold-silver/73933

"You must be very careful in trading these vehicles as these funds do not have any beneficial gold or silver behind them."

See Warren's work on Screwtape for refutation. For example, the latest installment,

http://screwtapefiles.blogspot.com/2012/09/slv-database-4.html

"There is now evidence that the GLD and SLV are paper settling on the comex."

Sure, 'evidence' from 'top un-named sources' etc. Let's see this 'evidence'.

"The GLD boys are the best at procuring "physical" gold in a hurry!!"

That's what happens when you're in London, the gold trading and warehousing capital of the world.

"It took 8 weeks for Sprott to acquire a small percentage of this quantity"

But not for the reasons that are implied:

see, for example,

http://screwtapefiles.blogspot.com/2011/08/erics-delivery.html

sample comment from the above:

Kid Dynamite said...

ps - one more very important point: when Sprott talks about how long it took him to get his silver, he implies that there was some sort of problem. So I asked his IR department if there was a default on the terms of the contract by the party who was delivering the silver. THE ANSWER WAS NO. repeat: the silver was delivered as per the terms of the contract, which Sprott arranged, of course...


...
"And many of you think that this vehicle has real metal?"

Yes.

enough said...

FWIW.........

Is JP Morgan Shorting Paper Metals While Acquiring Massive Physical Stockpiles?

http://www.silverdoctors.com/is-jp-morgan-shorting-paper-metals-while-acquiring-massive-physical-stockpiles-of-gold-silver/

Michael H said...

enough,

Wow, that article you linked to from SD is the epitome of misrepresenting your sources.

Really, the title should be:

JPM sells paper metals while buying physical metals

What a revelation! JPM is acting like a middle-man in the PM market! Wait, since PM's are also called 'bullion', we could even call them a 'Bullion Bank' (copyright Michael H 2012).

Quote from the source in the article:

"I explained to you what HSBC and JPM do on the silver. They get $ from the FED for free. They own all the storage vaults, so they do not have to pay the fees for storage. They then own the physical silver in their vaults and sell the futures contracts (which are in contango) at a much higher price than OTC price so then hold the both till delivery. Since there is no cost for $ and no cost for storage, they made a fortune on earning the contango of the silver and gold market. It’s a brilliant strategy, which has made them a fortune."

Translation: JPM buys gold or silver, warehouses it, then sells futures contracts on the metal, which either do or don't get delivered on (because the buyer doesn't want the metal after all, not for any nefarious reasons).

JoyOfLearning said...

Hiya everybody. I'm one of those quiet pupils at the back of the class sucking in the information that you so kindly give out in your discussions. Thank you!

Off topic: I wanted to send a special message to Blondie, but it seems his blog has been lost out there (a shame, since he had a great summary and series of introductory articles on freegold), so please forgive me if I leave it here for him and if anybody knows him please let him know, just in case he might be uplifted by the fact that while I was exploring the basement of an old grandfather house in eastern Europe I found his avatar given the due respect and framed on a wall, so thought I'd share as I really liked his articles and posts:

http://i45.tinypic.com/jjw6f7.jpg

Michael H said...

Blondie's 'Flow of Value' blog still appears to be up:

http://flowofvalue.blogspot.com/

enough said...

MH, prefaced with FWIW and in your opinion is nothing...that's fine.

I dont have an opinion on the story, just questions....

not sure what you mean by "misrepresenting your sources"?

Seems to me the piece states that what is occuring is JPM is shorting paper gold and using the proceeds to buy physical FOR IT'S OWN ACCOUNT......

It says nothing about acting as a broker so again not sure what you are getting at?

IF JPM is shorting paper gold and using the proceeds to buy physicak for it's own account could that not mean:

1. paper gold and unallocated accts are about to be cash settled?

2. JPM expecxts the premiums on physical vs paper to rise?

Michael H said...

enough,

I'm sorry for my sarcasm outburst, my ire was directed at Silverdoctors and not at you. But since you posted the link I understand if you would take my post as a personal attack. Wasn't meant that way. Apologies.

As for misrepresenting sources, this is what the source actually says:

They buy the physical silver at the same time they sell the future (on Comex) futures trade in contango (higher price than spot physical) they get zero interest rate cash from FED so borrow the money for free, they own the vaults to store the silver…. so as the future comes to maturity they can either settle against their physical long or roll the future to collect more free contango…. This is pure arbitrage paid for by the FED. This has been going on for over 30 years and why shouldn’t they be allowed to have 25% of the Open Interest? There is no manipulation because they are short the futures and long the physical and have “ZERO” price risk, but nice profits! It’s brilliant trading and completely 100% legal and that’s why they will never be charged with manipulation because there is none going on. Sometimes it’s just that easy!

Let’s go and visit their vaults and you can see all the physical silver there… Lease rates are at full carry +. There is no shortage what so ever and the banks are charging 40 bp for storage because they cannot find any more space to put it all, you can take all the physical you want! The JPM manipulation is not a manipulation, but a way of trading that has been going on for years. JPM is short futures (due to contango) and long physical. People need to understand that metals are just a derivative of the interest rate market and once people do, they will get a better understanding why the market moves the way it does.

I explained to you what HSBC and JPM do on the silver. They get $ from the FED for free. They own all the storage vaults, so they do not have to pay the fees for storage. They then own the physical silver in their vaults and sell the futures contracts (which are in contango) at a much higher price than OTC price so then hold the both till delivery. Since there is no cost for $ and no cost for storage, they made a fortune on earning the contango of the silver and gold market. It’s a brilliant strategy, which has made them a fortune.


None of this should be a surprise.

It's just like cash in a regular bank. The cash belongs to the bank; it is in 'IT'S OWN ACCOUNT'. (sorry couldn't resist). Cash in a bank is not an asset of any particular depositor, but it can be used by the bank to fulfill withdrawal requests as it sees fit.

So it is with the metals. The metal is owned by the bank, to be used for delivering on contracts as they see fit. Not so nefarious.

The profit for JPM is in the contango, as the trader says. Basically, they are charging investors for the storage. It's as if cash account holders were paying interest to keep their cash in the bank.

Now, this of course gives a motive for JPM to play with the PM prices in the short term to try to get as many contracts as possible to expire worthless, since that would allow JPM to hold on to the metal for another round of contango-scalping.

For emphasis, let me pull out a few phrases:

- all the physical silver there

- There is no shortage what so ever

- you can take all the physical you want!

- The JPM manipulation is not a manipulation, but a way of trading

- JPM is short futures (due to contango) and long physical.

- There is no manipulation because they are short the futures and long the physical and have “ZERO” price risk, but nice profits!


So there you have it. This source is trying to dispel a few of the persistent silver myths, and instead his words are being completely turned around and interpreted as 'JPM is actually front-running us into physical'.

Anonymous said...

M,

I always thought the Euro architects meant 2% Austrian inflation. (2% expansion of meduim of exchange regardless of prices of anything)

The ECB definition of price stability can be read here:

Price stability is defined as a year-on-year increase in the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for the euro area of below 2%

and

The Governing Council has also clarified that, in the pursuit of price stability, it aims to maintain inflation rates below, but close to, 2% over the medium term.

It refers to a consumer price index (HICP).

Using any sort of 'Austrian' inflation which would be a money supply quantity would be rather stupid in my view, for the following reason.

How do you define 'money supply'? You would need something such as base money plus total amount of credit created in the banking system. But then, taking out bank loans for different purposes has drastically different outcomes. If people take out mortgages but no other loans, then real estate prices go up and consumer prices remain unchanged. If government bonds (largely consumption expenditures) or credit card debt ends up on the balance sheet of the banking system, you would rather get consumer price inflation.

Now which one do you want to target? You cannot target both unless you give detailed instructions to every single commercial bank. Keeping real estate prices fixed and not caring about consumer prices is not the solution. But if you care about consumer prices, you cab use the HICP right away and forget the Austrians.

The second issue besides the appropriate definition of money supply would be velocity. If you try an Austrian approach and target some version of money supply, you miss velocity, and if velocity slows down, you get price deflation even if money supply is constant. This is probably not what you want either.

Victor

Anonymous said...


PhatExpat,

VTC? Thoughts?

I cannot prevent any of these brain amputated nutcases from writing their blogs, and even if I could, my time would be too precious to try.

Besides the fax from HSBC that Warren James at Screwtape discovered and the coincidence in allocations spotted by Kid Dynamite, the fact that Lance Lewis' GLD Puke indicator and my trading strategy work, is evidence that both GLD and SLV do have the metal.

Victor

Anonymous said...


enough,

IF JPM is shorting paper gold and using the proceeds to buy physicak for it's own account could that not mean: [...]

If I was a high JPM exec, I would make sure my bank is hedged on paper, and I would buy physical gold with my own private money. Why put the physical into the bank where it eventually belongs to the shareholders?

Always ask 'cui bono'.

Victor

mr pinnion said...

@ampmfix

"Concerning x-ray fluorescence I looked at it in the past and the Niton handheld looked great but around 28k$"

I know from experience that scrap metal recycling Businesses often own such devices. Slip the owner a few dollars and he might scan your whole stash for you.

Regards
Ozzy

Motley Fool said...

Not too long ago it was said here that the current price for gold of gold was at an unsustainable level for funds like GLD as they kept losing inventory. It was observed that a higher price was needed before they could add inventory again. Now the price has risen to a level where they are able to add inventory, and again questions are being asked.

Curious.

enough said...

MH and VTC, thank you

The one reamining question I have is the GLD inventory build.

If GLD is taking on physical, dont they have to issue more share in 100,000 increments?

Dont they have to notify the mkt of this?

How can they be taking on 80 tonnes of physical and not issuing shares?

Any idea where these deposits are coming from and more realistically answerable, why?

For safety in the big bad HSBC vault instead of a rather large shoe box at the back of the walk in closet in the master suite hidden underneath some Louis Vitton handbags?

Michael H said...

enough,

I think shares are created in 'baskets', as you say, and on the fly. The APs bring gold to the fund and get shares in return, which they are free to sell into the market. Or vice versa, they can buy GLD shares in the market, turn them into the fund in exchange for gold, and sell the gold OTC.

The GLD holdings website,

http://www.spdrgoldshares.com/sites/us/value/historical_archive/

shows how much gold GLD has; I think stating the number of oz / tons held is sufficient information, without stating the number of shares.

GLD is different from PHYS, because GLD is not a closed-end fund like PHYS is. When PHYS adds shares, they have to notify the market etc.

As best as I can tell, GLD shares are created when demand for GLD is relatively higher than demand for OTC-gold.

GLD can be held in brokerage accounts, etc., including 401(k)s, so that might be part of the demand. I don't really know.

Anonymous said...


As Michael H says, if GLD adds inventory, the number of shares automatically increases. Of course, we don't know who owns them.

Victor

enough said...

I dont want to belabour this but I'm wondering about push and/or pull. Basically the initiation starts with an individual or institution that wants to either deposit (push)physical or withdraw physical(pull). It is not GLD that initiates these activities.

What might be reasons for an entity to want to store their physical in GLD? Safety (debatable)?

Do depositor earn anything for depositing their gold? Is it less expensive to store in GLD/HSBC vault than others? Free except for mgmt fees?

I can see reasons for physical withdrawl. Lack of trust in the banking system, MFG, PFG etc.

There does seem to be a mad dash to deposit. Is that not odd? thanks again

Michael H said...

enough,

Gold isn't 'deposited' into GLD.

It (sort of) works like this:

- Shares of GLD are bought in the market; GLD price goes up.

- GLD premium to NAV goes up, so an AP will buy gold OTC, and turn it into the GLD ETF in exchange for new GLD shares.

- The AP sells the GLD shares on the market, capturing the premium of GLD over NAV.

.. and vice versa when shares of GLD are redeemed for gold.

So really the question is one of balance between demand in the OTC markets and demand in the market for GLD shares.

ampmfix said...

Thanks for the idea Ozzy, never thought of that. But, I already ordered this evening a TM-8811 for around 126€, can't wait to test it, I love to own tools. Besides, I wouldn't show my stash to anyone ;0), it is widespread, so I will do it little by little. Cheers.

K said...

ampmfix-

Let us know how it goes... I was also thinking about something. Although in the description I saw it didn't say it measured gold. I had mine out the other night checking through them. My caliper is not the best of quality but all of them were correct on weight and all within a tenth or so of correct diameter and thickness, so assuming they're all good... well the ones that are under my roof... Anyone have any idea on how much difference in size a fake would be. I have Krugs, Maples, Eagles, and Philharmonics... Any insight is appreciated.

Cheers

Motley Fool said...

I'm unsure why the idea persists that it is hard to fake coins.

An ultrasonic thickness gauge is the only affordable tool I can think of that could easily pick up fakes.

Creating an alloy with the same density as gold is not that difficult or expensive imo.

TF

Piripi said...

MnMark; Joy,

I have removed that blog, and asked FOFOA to remove the link.

Things were written and posted as my thinking developed, and in a way I guess it’s a bit like Hansel and Gretel leaving a trail of crumbs. I didn’t seriously expect anyone else to find them useful; attempting to put one’s thoughts into type is an excellent way of developing that thinking. Posting something publicly means one has to be more discriminating in that process. The internet is quite a remarkable instrument. I remember typing at the end of the first “stay tuned, there is plenty more to say on this topic”, and then reading it and thinking “really? what?”, not being able to imagine what I could have to say. The notion was laughable. (Now I have too much to say, so much I've had to reassess my approach.)

Now, in hindsight, I can see so much better where that trail of crumbs has lead, and hazard a much better estimation as to where it is going, and with the benefit of that much better perspective I can see that the trail of crumbs I placed are not the best possible path. It's just the route I took. There are other ways of seeing the same things, and some of them are more effective than others. I’m simply removing the less effective, so as to not waste anyone’s time unduly. I’ll post what I consider a more useful angle on what remains of my remaining blog if and when it’s done.

I'm not really into baggage.

Phat Repat said...

@VTC, et al
I don't pay attention to the GLD/SLV stuff, but I know that HO puts forth a number that he believes to be accurate (and thus wanted to share to hear yours and others thoughts; thanks). The value in HO, that I see, are the plethora of articles that are put together (a synopsis if you will) relevant to PMs. Sure, those articles are designed to paint a pic, but then again, what isn't? ;-)

As to GLD/SLV; if you're a trader, great, have at it. However, with all this rehypothecation going on, why would I even consider this as a legitimate source (Giant or not)? I believe we all agree that physical, in your possession, is the only way to go from a FG perspective.

Anonymous said...

Phat Expat,

GLD and SLV only own allocated metal, i.e. the trusts have the title, and HSBC only stores it for them.

Victor

Anand Srivastava said...

@M

I think the most basic factor to understand is that the value of gold (or any other fixed volume money) is directly dependent on technology. Its value increases due to technology because almost everything else's value reduces by technology. Think about it.

Property prices reduce in value due to over production due to ability to build more houses in a small area. Food etc also reduce in value due to over production due to ability to produce more productive crops. Gold production will not really impact the gold in circulation, if it is valued correctly. Currently gold is not valued correctly so its circulation is impacted by the production much more than it should.

Technology also makes people more productive, allowing people to save more in absolute terms. This should increase the value of gold if it is serving the SoV function.

If technology matters in the value of gold, then you will understand that before the 20th century, technology growth was glacial. So devaluation due to gold was glacial.

But in the 20th Century gold's real value started to increase in value at an ever increasing pace. This made a gold standard impractical. Now you are going to have to revalue gold every decade or so.

Now under the light of this fact, lets see what happens when MoE is also an SoV. When a price fixing is done in Gold standard the price of the MoE is fixed to a bit higher than the real value of gold. This means that people will want to keep the paper instead of the gold. But slowly the price of gold increases (due to excess printing of paper) and the situation reverses. So now people will want to exchange their paper with the gold.

Now lets come to the real problem of non inflating Fiat currency. If the amount of currency is fixed, the value of the currency should increase. Here the same factors apply as in gold. Gold also doesn't increase in supply, so it increases in value. Fiat if it doesn't increase in supply it will increase in value.

Once Fiat starts to increase in value people must charge less than what they were charging before. This will cause resentment in the people supplying the big stores.

The deflation will cause people to take the MoE out of circulation as SoV. This will reduce the amount of MoE on the market and will impede the support of productive ventures.

Having an inflation in terms of MoE, tells people that this is not an SoV, don't save in it.

A high inflation is bad for productive ventures.

The two requirements means that a low positive inflation is the best for keeping MoE out of peoples Mattresses, and in productive ventures. Also a separate SoV will make sure there is not much free money for the banks or govts to play with.

The separation of SoV and MoE is required, and an inflating MoE is also required. A low inflation rate is also required. Keeping the CB outside the influence of the govt is also required, if a very difficult solution. Euro has achieved all of these. I am not sure any other currency will be able to do this.

See this is plain logic no equations or even numbers anywhere :-).

Phat Repat said...

@VTC
Yes, I'm sure people at MFG and PFG thought the same thing. History has proven otherwise. I like your posts but am not too confident in your reliance on published documents/statements as being gospel; whether from the ECB, GLD, or others. And I'm not questioning your take on the GLD puke indicator; it works until it doesn't.

It seems the following Twain quote can be changed to read:
If you don't read the prospectus/news release/... you're uninformed, if you do read it, you're misinformed. ;-)

Anonymous said...

Woland,

As to your post above regarding Japan's early trading, there's actually an interesting history before 1853, with silver flowing out of Japan in return for imported goods.

Japan had a large silver mine, and the Portugese and Dutch from the 16th century started trading guns and Chinese silk to Japan in return for fine porcelain, laquerware and silver. The demand for the guns and silk imported to Japan was so large however, that over time, Japan's silver mines were exhausted, and silver became in short supply. Japan not having an open economy in that period, and trade being under strict control, further silver exports were finally banned by the commanding military and the traders had to take other goods instead.

But trade flows had to balance without exports of silver. So the amout of silk and guns shipped into Japan dropped. But fairly quickly, Japanese porcelain and artworks had become desirable in Europe and an export industry for these goods developed.

I hope it gives a nice illustration of how silver had flowed in the margin of Japan's trade for a long time before the year 1853 that you mentioned.

To FOFOA and all, it's nice to finally contribute something to the forum, and I hope this could serve as a nice first post here.

Anonymous said...

Burningfiat,

Much appreciate your post from a while ago on Sweden's cashless society.

I'm not from Sweden, but in my Eurozone country, I'm certainly seeing developments in the same direction too. The electronic transactions are convenient, but increasingly there are shops and supermarket counters accepting solely electronic payment. Also governments, banks, and pension funds all seem to push people to keep their savings as credit in the system.

Michael H said...

Phat,

It is hard for me to imagine a worse way to present data and stories than HO's blog.

If you are interested in the COMEX, I think Gene Arensberg does a much better job:

http://www.gotgoldreport.com/

For example the latest one up:

http://www.gotgoldreport.com/2012/09/gold-and-silver-disaggregated-cot-report-dcot-for-september-21.html

"but I know that HO puts forth a number that he believes to be accurate..."

What number is this? The GLD inventory? You don't need to go to HO to find that number (or the COMEX numbers, for that matter).

Michael H said...

anand srivastava,

I like your comment but I have to take issue with this one statement:

"Property prices reduce in value due to over production due to ability to build more houses in a small area."

I think property prices are actually rising in value along with technology for two reasons:

1. The base 'land' value in a city would go up 'due to ability to build more houses in a small area' (think high-rise building).

2. The land value in the outskirts of a city would also go up in value with improvements in transportation, since what used to be the hinterlands are now the suburbs.

Pat said...

One thing continues to bother me. If all country CB's are increasingly adding gold, in size, who is selling, in size? And for Pete's sakes, why?

Woland said...

Hello and welcome Raymond;

What you say is true. My comment was directed at Kobajashi's
question regarding central banking. But during the period you
mention, trade was...... actually .........TRADE! Imagine that! I
bring you something you want, and you give me something I
want in return. FINISHED! What a neat concept. No need for
"future promises to deliver something of value".

Of course, to the Netherlands at the time, silver also functioned
as a form of money, so it was both a wealth holding and could
be converted to coin money, as was the case during periods in
the U.S. Lastly, the Chinese demanded silver for trade with the
West, and as England ran out, and had to trade gold to the
continent to get silver, so that she could continue to import
the luxuries she craved from China, a new idea dawned - Opium!
Infect an entire nation with a currency you produce with ease
from you colony of India, since you don't produce much of what
they want. Too bad the Chinese have long memories: they have
been writing their own history for thousands of years.

Phat Repat said...

@Michael H
I will take a look at the link you shared.

On another note, you state:
"I think property prices are actually rising in value ..."

Probably have to preface that with "Depending on location..." and I would go even further with "depending on desperation (to please the Missus or some other fallacious desire)..."

Real estate is the most ridiculously overvalued liability there is today. I don't know if you're in the US Michael H, or how vested you are (e.g. property owner, realtor, bought at the wrong time, etc...), but looking at the amount of taxes being paid on houses and the future increases (because the Govies don't want a pay cut) is simply breathtaking. Further, just as Obama stated "You didn't build that" well, when it comes to real estate you can probably include "You don't really own that."

As I have stated before, we won't have a bottom in housing or the stock market until either are utterly despised. IMHO.

Michael H said...

Phat,

You are taking my statement out of context. The full sentence you quoted was "I think property prices are actually rising in value along with technology for two reasons:"

Let's take 1900 as a starting point. Do you think property values have risen or fallen with the advent of the automobile, the telephone, the internet, etc?

The original discussion should be further nuanced by distinguishing between 'land' values and 'building' values when referring to property.

Further, I considered adding to my comment to reflect the distortion in the property market due to easy credit in the system, but decided that it was not relevant to anand's original comment.

Woland said...

Pat: ubiquitous "cash for gold" signs throughout the world
yield (+,-) 1500 Tons of scrap per year. This supply is NOT
"locked up" , unlike the 2500 tons of mining output. A handy
source, until it runs down, available because the owners "need
the money".

Anand Srivastava said...

Michael H:

I agree. I meant Property prices, not land prices. You cannot stack land over each other, so the value of land is not affected by technology, its a fixed commodity. But homes, you can stack them vertically. Yes stacking of homes will cause a small depression in the land prices, but that should not be able to offset the increase due to technology, atleast on the average.

Phat Repat said...

@Michael H

Yeah, I think you should have included easy credit (i.e. devaluation). But I get your point.

Pat said...

Woland,

Thank you I had no idea the scrap could add up to such a yearly figure. Thats fairly amazing.
I guess to paraphrase the old saw " An ounce here, an ounce there, pretty soon you're talking about REAL MONEY"

Woland said...

In an effort to break up the unbearable quiet here, I offer
a hopefully amusing quote I just read;

"Berkshire Hathaway's Warren Buffet does not view cash
the way most people do, writes his biographer Alice
Schroeder. "He thinks of cash differently than most
investors do", she said. "For him, it is a "universal call
option that never expires", giving him the flexibility to
swoop in and buy more lucrative assets at a bargain
when the opportunity arises."

Well, I think we can all agree that that has been his
modus operandi for most of his life, and that he has
been quite good at it. There will always be enterprises
in distress, no doubt. But when your "cash" is in a
currency which is dying, and a competitor for those
same distressed assets has a far better one, prepare to
be outbid. Things "universal" that "never expire" are
attributes more associated with religion or philosophy,
and less with currency. (IMHO)

Michael H said...

Michael dV,

Thanks for posting the link to this ZH piece on shadow banking:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-09-23/fed-has-another-39-trillion-qe-go-least

Some interesting quotes from the background:

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/will-record-plunge-shadow-banking-liabilities-impair-shadow-funding-us-current-account-defic

European banks, and their shadow bank offshoots were an important part of the “funding infrastructure” that financed the U.S. current account deficit,

Generically, everyone has always looked at China and Japan as those parties responsible for funding the US Current account deficit. Alas, that is only (less than) half the truth. As the New York Fed suggests, the shadow banking system is likely a more important economic funding factor than even China and Japan combined when it comes to the CA.


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/verge-historic-inversion-shadow-banking

As some may have noticed looking at Chart 1, as shadow banking continues to collapse, it has to be offset by increasing conventional bank liabilities: for the most part real cash (technically electronic) deposits.

What shadow banking has been for America is nothing short of an inflation buffer.



However, there is a rub. As we noted previously, shadow banking is simply an inflation buffer: since there are no deposits, there is little risk of the "money" contained in the banking system from furiously vacating and be used to spur purchases of everything from 1,000x P/E/ stocks, to overvalued housing, to just being packed away safely in a mattress. In other words, the Shadow Banking system is circular as the money contained therein is self-contained.

Not so for deposits. Just ask any banker, central or otherwise, especially in Europe, who has had to deal with the threat of bank runs.

The biggest paradox is that as the US financial system takes more and more steps back, and reverts to a more conventional system (look at Europe as a paradigm of what is coming), the risk that incremental money creation by the Fed will eventually spur inflation rises exponentially, as more and more "money" ends up residing within conventional bank deposit accounts.



Said inflation buffer, however, is getting smaller and smaller every quarter, and at this rate, shadow banking as a transformational conduit will completely disappear in a few short years, at which point everything will be in the hands of fickle depositors.


MH: inflation buffer = credibility inflation

Candy Sange said...

Fed Virtually Funding the Entire US Deficit: Lindsey (CNBC)

Anonymous said...

Woland,

Thank you for your kind reply.

Yes, in all these histories the goods flow where they are valued highest, even when these countries weren't all exactly open markets.

As to the silver in these trades, what also played a role is that it was valued differently in each country depending on domestic availability and on it being used as local currency or just as an item to settle international trade.

The traders of course took their profits in between, but I guess in the end, the metal flowed to the place where it was valued highest.

I won't touch on the ethics of the opium issue, but you are correct that once established, it was an immensely profitable arrangement and indeed solved Britain's problem with the large outflow of silver.

Anonymous said...


Phat Expat,

I'm sure people at MFG and PFG thought the same thing.

Of course. The funny thing is that, had they read all the small print, they would have known that they did not have title to any metal, but merely a claim on their brokers.

Apart from this, it is certainly possible that there is fraud with allocated gold somewhere. Of course, for small quantities, you just make sure it is in your possession and you need not care about any details.

But do you base any decisions on the assumption that there is fraud with allocated accounts? Such has hoping for a short squeeze at the COMEX, all the theories about GLD not having any gold, or whatever the goldbug crowd advertizes?

I wouldn't. It is certainly possible that the big boys who have their metal in London allocated storage, simply play by the rules and get their wealth safely into the new system while Harvey Organ readers just waste their time worrying about the wrong issues.

Victor

Edwardo said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
enough said...

VIC,

did GLD puke of 10 tonnes trigger a VTC BUY signal?

cheers, E

Anonymous said...


enough, yes, a buy signal.

Question: Was this James Turk selling his GLD because he thinks the environment is now less inflationary (just joking...) or was this a limit-buy order plus allocation around $1740?

Victor

Aaron said...

Interesting Victor. If it was a limit-buy and we assume many more are in place at still lower rungs, we should expect to see all sorts of GLD vomit as the $price craters. The action at the front of the line so to speak as those at the back are cashed out. Bummer.

Anonymous said...


This week is also MTM Friday.

Victor

Anonymous said...

Something I don't see a lot written about is the operational aspect of the 'big change' and risk mitigation. I could happily go out and buy 25ac, somewhere I would like to retire anyway and use as a country holiday home until then. But doing so would consume 100% of my cash.

I could sit around waiting for POG to increase, then cash out 50% and buy later, but risk not buying it in time.

I could cash out enough gold for a deposit, then load up on debt for the rest, with the intention of RPG taking care of the rest 'one day\someday'.

In short, what is the downside of using debt, when you hold a private reserve of gold against that debt? (Unsecured against the gold).

Does anyone else think this way?

Rui said...

@ SleepingVillage

Quote: Ideally the currency is meant to be a "hot potato" and to flow to lubricate the economy. This is a good thing.

"Lubricate" is a Western debtor-oriented concept. Only in the modern West would people (especially bankers & govt) consider taking on debt to spend and consume an act of "lubricating / helping economy".

Little do they realize or care that a torrent flow of lubricant debt ends up driving price artificially high (supply/demand & price discovery at work), which sets themselves up for overpaying a bubble.

Once they reach their borrowing limit, the torrent flow halts and the bubble pops. Bankers and govt end up lubricating not the economy but bubbles and mal-investment.

Instead of admitting their mistakes and letting price correct, Western debtors want more credits in the system to prop the price up at the irrational level under the name "price stability". That's why they want soft money.

Such mechanism kicks off a negative feeback loop of "debt -> bubble -> more debt to save bubbles -> more bubbles". This cycle eventually kills the economy and the currency

Hard money (the one w/o FRL) on the other hand curbs the problem well as it takes the control of money supply away from irresponsible bankers and govt.

In a hard money system (w/o FRL) people can still borrow but they have to compete w/ other borrowers. Those who come up with a sound, productive purpose tend to get the loan.

Such merit-oriented system tends to guide money flow to where there's legit growth potential. The result is a positive feedback loop of "prudent lending -> money flowing into sound business -> real growth -> profits for prudent lenaders -> more pruduent lending".

Quote: We simply save in gold, instead, and that renders the whole "depreciating fiat" thing(fear)redundant.

In order to save we have to have income first. If that income is still in FIAT form then we are robbed before we can save it. That's why I pointed out debtors and savers CANNOT really co-exist when savers' income is diluted by debtors

Govt and bankers promise all the time they won't dilute that much so it does not hurt but we all know their track record on such promises, do we not?

So the solution is simply transacting in gold. That way we don't need to save in gold as our income already arrives in the form of gold. We don't need a FIAT detour first where the debtors ambush us. It's gold right away. Isn't that easier?

Rui said...

@ anand srivastava

Quote: Gold standard actually enslaves gold by fixing a price to it. This is done because govts hate gold. Unfortunately Gold Bugs and HMS people don't realize that they are playing straight in the hands of monopolists.

Not quite. Govt wants unlimited money supply so they don't want a gold standard to hold them back. They won't tolerate an honest gold price to reveal how much they have inflated either so they rig the gold market.

As long as govt still has the monopoly control of money supply they will rig it. The motive is there. The tools are there. The result will be same. This time will NOT be different from every past time.

Phat Repat said...

@fourth
"In short, what is the downside of using debt, when you hold a private reserve of gold against that debt? (Unsecured against the gold)."

Well, if I understand you correctly, probably the greatest downside, based on a theory floating here, is when Prechter gets his 15 minutes of fame. That theory suggests the paper price of physical gold will crash. For how long? Don't know, but that obviously puts you in a bad position.

Bjorn said...

@Fourth and Phat.

I dont see much downside, provided you don´t use the gold as collateral for the loan. If I read you correctly you would be borrowing against the land? Then the worst that could happen is you loose the land to the bank if you for some reason are unable to make payments on the loan during a calamitous transition. Just make sure the gold is kept safe and secret, to paraphrase Gandalf. The POG crash will not matter to you then, as long as you don´t sell the gold at that time.

Anonymous said...

@ Rui

Not quite. Government wants unlimited money supply so they don't want a gold standard to hold them back. They won't tolerate an honest gold price to reveal how much they have inflated either so they rig the gold market.

As long as government still has the monopoly control of money supply they will rig it. The motive is there. The tools are there. The result will be same. This time will NOT be different from every past time.


I usually fast scan past your posts because it is apparent you have arrived at our fine blog with a substantial burden that has been accumulated along the hard money trail. You will be a tough fish to catch. There are far better equipped individuals here that are far more eloquent and patient than I am. Consequently, I believe my silence is largely golden. However, your last post did catch my eye and I wish to make a few comments

As it turns out, I completely agree with your words above. I assume you came to believe those words along your path of discovery of the virtues of hard money. We Freegolders believe those words as well. It really is the very essence of this blog. The need for gold to be free of control, thus gold that is free to do what it does best, to store value.

Hard money or a gold standard will not work for the same reasons it has never worked. Re-read your post word for word. Anyone who professes to make money hard must shackle government and must prevent them from softening money. As far as I can tell this has never been accomplished. This is the case not because government has super powers and can thwart the will of the governed. It is the case because it is the desire of the governed to have soft money. Desire is too soft of a term, demand is more appropriate.

Anonymous said...

(cont.)


We have been accused of being religious zealots here at the FOFOA blog. Most of the accusing comes from the hard money camp it seems. In reality they get it backwards and it is they who are the religious zealots. Religion essentially relies on faith, for it requires faith when describing or believing something that cannot be readily demonstrated or be subjected to rigorous scientific methodologies. History shows us that not a single hard money has ever been devised and survived the test of time. Yet, the hard money camp wants us to believe that this time it could and would be different, if we only can develop the backbone to shackle government or otherwise limit their ability to produce soft money.

That unfortunately is the crux of the whole problem. The hard money camp wants to prevent government from doing the very thing it exists to do. Government exists to serve the interests of the people as a whole in order to make society stronger than it would otherwise be as loose collection of individual and self-autonomous actors. Humans agree to sacrifice 100% self-autonomy and empower government because they perceive there is a net benefit. Ideally they elect a government, but they can also simply allow themselves to be governed by self-appointed entity that can demonstrate there is a net benefit in being governed. We have sufficiently demonstrated on this blog that it is the nature of humanity to not only desire soft money, but to demand it. How can those tasked with governing ever hope to be successful by denying what the governed demand?

There is no hope for government when the governed do not agree to sacrifice self-autonomy. No government is more powerful than collective will of the governed. Government exists and endures at the discretion of the governed.

We are not governed by machines and algorithms, just as we are not machines and algorithms ourselves. We are all humans, and as such we are are all subject to the human trait of seeking advantageous survival strategies in order to optimize our daily existence. In other words, we pursue self-interests that are sometimes incompatible with both the collective self-interest as well as self-interests of individuals around us. We elect or otherwise allow ourselves to be governed by humans with self-interests of their own. We then demand that they serve us and our self-interests. If they do not serve in a satisfactory manner, the get shit canned. (cont.)

Anonymous said...

That was the last cog that finally found its place in my understanding of the nature of money. Money is a tool that serves a very unique creature, Homo Sapiens. We do not serve it. We alone on this earth can conceive of such a tool, let alone use it. By virtue of its conception, money is useful and fulfills a need. It will be what we demand it to be. Throughout history we humans have shown an insatiable demand for soft money. Our governments have been put in place to satiate demand, and soft money being a big one. To understand money and government's role in administering it requires an understanding of the human being. If the human element is ignored you are left with a system or a theory that would work just fine for society of machines that have no concern regarding the selfish pursuit of survival. A great system that is mathematically stable and sustainable, yet 100% incompatible and unsustainable for use in a human ecosystem.

We are not religious here. Certainly in the sense that we have faith in one particular monetary system or another or what the system professes to use as medium of exchange and store of value. We simply observe the users of the system and their behavior. The tool did not create the user of the tool. We observe and then follow the the trail of consequences to see where it goes. We do not seek to blaze a new trail or to alter the course of the trail. We say the maker of the tool decides the nature of the tool and how it is used. It has always been so and will always be so.

We believe mankind has a particular fondness for its wonderful tool called money. We do not presume to alter the nature of man or his fondness for a type of money. We say that we are powerless to deny such a thing. We believe that simply changing our choices on the individual level as to how we store value can allow the coexistence of two separate tools that we demand. Where we have deluded ourselves to believe that one tool serves adequately, we elect to use two distinctly different ones where each is designed specifically to do what is does best. One is designed to store value, the other is designed to circulate as a unit of exchange and to facilitate the production of credit. (cont.)

Anonymous said...

In such a system as Freegold where individual decisions dictate the value of gold in currency terms, control and governance of money is shifted back onto the users of the system away from the government. The government takes on a reactionary role where it receives governance signals from the governed. We do not believe this is a concept that government as it currently exists relishes or would in any way bring about on its own, certainly ones that are heavily invested in the $IMFS. But nonetheless it is the destination that lies at the end of their path. This patchwork system we call the $IMFS will end because it cannot endure.

The purpose of this blog is to explore and watch what the human super-organism does in order to adapt to the demise of the $IMFS. We feel the super-organism will adapt organically in such a way to maximize the usefulness and potential to deliver what is needed. We believe Freegold is the result. We are observers and we require nothing to be done or to be accomplished. As such, it requires that we have open minds that can simply take in what we see and adapt our understanding as required. Dogma that we picked up elsewhere prior to arrival elsewhere serves no purpose here. It would serve you well

The end. (Thank God!)

Anonymous said...

(I am sorry, the last part was eaten by Blogger! here it is!!!)

It would serve you well to leave your dogma at the door so to speak and enter here with an open mind. If observing is not satisfying enough, it isn't for some, then this blog is probably not right for you. You won't find activists here or haters. In fact you will find quite the opposite. You will largely see acceptance and tolerance for the actors playing out the parts they are designed to play. In fact we can sit back and watch in what might seem to be a detached and somewhat amused demeanor (maddening to most Hard Money Socialists) that is often mistaken for religious state of acceptance and grace born in faith. Very funny really.

Best of luck and perhaps you will find what you are looking for. I am sure you are looking for something or otherwise you would not be here. There is a lot of talent on this blog. Tap into that talent and ask yourself what if?

The end. (Thank God again!)

Dr. Octagon said...

@Rui says: "Lubricate" is a Western debtor-oriented concept. Only in the modern West would people (especially bankers & govt) consider taking on debt to spend and consume an act of "lubricating / helping economy".

Think of this from a business point of view. If a flower shop is hired for a large event, they have a need for short-term financing. Cash is needed to purchase the flowers and supplies up front, and to pay the designers and delivery workers. Only after delivery are they paid for the event.

What's the most efficient way to handle this? Should the shop keep enough cash on hand to cover the cost of any upcoming event, and turn away any job that is above the cash on hand? Should the shop have to solicit individual savers for their temporary funding needs, running the risk that it won't be available in time for the job because most of the savers available funding has already been allocated to some other prudent use (e.g. the caterer for the same event)?

In my opinion, the best solution to this is the system we have today: The shop goes to a bank, makes their case, and the bank creates the currency for the loan on the spot. The loan is repaid after the job is complete, plus interest, and majority of the currency involved disappears.

The fact that this results in inflation, is of no concern for those who don't save in currency. If you want to protect your savings from inflation, the solution is not to try to force the world to use a harder currency, but instead to choose to save in something other than currency. This is better for business, better for you, and you don't have to change the world for it to work.

byiamBYoung said...

[Standing on my chair and clapping enthusiastically]

Well done, Matrixsentry. Well done.

Anand Srivastava said...

Rui:

As long as govt still has the monopoly control of money supply they will rig it.

I guess you don't understand how correct this statement is. Think again. Who controls the money supply. Doesn't matter if it is a Gold standard. It is still controlled by them. In fact you cannot design a system which will not be controlled by them.

Freegold sidesteps the problem, by letting them have control of the fiat system. WE don't give them the power to OUR money, we get it out of the system, as soon as possible. I don't really care what other people do. If the current crisis does not teach them nothing else will. It is a pity that they lose money. But I cannot do much more than sympathize with them. Life is too short to worry over ignorant people. I do try to teach them, but if they don't understand they don't.

Indenture said...

Well said Max!

Anand Srivastava said...

matrixsentry: That was really good.

Anonymous said...


Rui,

let me also have a go.

Yes, you are right that an excessive amount of consumer loans causes misallocation of capital.

Now let's see how the two proposed systems (hard money vs fiat as medium of exchange and gold as store of value react to this:

Under a gold standard, it nevertheless happens from time to time that there is an excessive amount of consumer loans (loans to government in whatever form, are an example of this). This causes misallocation of capital, rising consumer prices, and it also creates 'fake credit', i.e. someone who has trusted his savings to a bank that made irresponsible loans, is sitting on a time bomb. Eventually, the loans will default, and he will lose his savings.

One day, the consumers cannot pay their interest anymore, and they default. I don't care that much about the consumer defaulting or about the irresponsible lender getting wiped out. But there are two further effects: (1) some innocent third parties who had their savings in the wrong bank, get wiped out, too. (2) consumer prices decline - if this gives you a downward wage-price spiral, this is bad for the real economy (and not only for the financial plane).

Take a look at the history of the gold standards. Yes, the U.S. is not the only country on this planet. There are many more. And every gold standard eventually failed. Why? Because irresponsible consumer loans were created (e.g. to fund government's wars), and the in some instance, the economic disaster was too bad to bear, and the gold standard was abolished.

This causes problem (3): Those people who trusted the gold standard and put their money into the bank, will lose the real value of their savings when the gold standard is abandoned (or even when the official gold price in terms of fiat is eventually increased. Think 1933).

Even before it was abolished, you had regular banking crises and far from stable consumer prices.

With freegold, i.e. fiat money as medium of exchange and gold as a store of value, you have the same issue with excessive consumer loans, it is just that the system reacts differently.

Say someone lends irresponsibly. Prices increase, and capital is misallocated. Eventually the consumer defaults and threatens to wipe out the bank.

Fine. Now the central bank can rescue the commercial bank. This means the previous inflation (when consumer loans were made) will not be reversed by deflation, but becomes permanent. But (1') innocent third parties are not wiped out. (2') There is no downward wage-price spiral that damages the real economy.

And the best of all: (3') People primarily save in gold rather than in fiat, and so nobody loses the real value of the bulk of his savings in this process.

Compare (1),(2),(3) with (1'),(2'),(3'). What do you think? Irresponsible consumer loans, spendthrift governments, etc. are all the same. Just the outcome is different.

Victor

Anonymous said...


There may also be an issue with causality:

(A) A gold standard prevents banks and governments from behaving irresponsibly.

(B) Whenever banks and/or government behaved irresponsibly, the caused a serious crisis for the gold standard sometimes including its failure.

I don't think you have much in order to back (A) empirically. There is, however, a lot of historical evidence for (B).

So what does this tell us? Attempts at introducing hard money will continue to fail until the system involves into one that can survive irresponsible banks/governments.

We all think we know such a system.

Victor

Tommy2Tone said...

"Our modern dollar world has created a fiat debt structure money system of biblical proportions. Nothing like it has ever been produced in the annals of time. We got to this point because our money was gold in the beginning. Then we allowed our confidence in gold as wealth to grow into the abilities of mankind to continue such a money system without gold. The result is a massive debt against every thing except gold! Every asset that exists in the USA is fully covered by such debt several times over. Either directly or indirectly through various official government debts.

There is simply no historic example in the history of mankind that shows where everyone surrendered their assets to satisfy such debt. Yet, this is the process you Traveler, fully well expect from a deflation. A deflation, by the way, that no gold standard today says must happen?

Truly, had the dollar advocates allowed it to be devalued against gold long ago we would all know where we stand. Free trading Physical gold would have slowly risen in dollar prices in an ongoing process that would have taken gold prices into the heavens. But, it didn't happen and an imploding debt structure (caused by pushing on a string of consumer credit demand) will be "QUICKLY" countered with debt instrument purchases from the official level. The old 1980 monetary control act is already in place and allows our fed to buy everything down to your shoe laces in order to stop any debt defaults. "

FOA from foa-on-hyperinflation

burningfiat said...

VtC and matrixsentry,

What a pleasure to read your replies to Rui. Thanks a lot!

Raymond,

Thanks for your account on going cashless in Eurozone countries also.
I'm not quite sure what to think of this development. My gut reaction is that I sure hope that the different central banks and monetary authorities has the backs of the banks should problems arise.
If people are accustomed to only use electronic payment, it will perhaps make bank runs a more seldom event. OTOH if bank runs and perhaps hyperinflation do happen it will perhaps feel more traumatic. If electronic payments become the main method of payment, Central bank/Gov. early intervention (FDIC type) regarding the individual troubled banks and deposits become more important (before cascades of bank runs begin to happen).
I'm thinking about what people in the USA should do? According to the lecture here, we won't avoid an all out paper hyperinflation in the US dollar. Don't get too friendly with your credit card, hey?

/Burning

Anonymous said...


Before this pearl gets deleted, I grab it:

Art: Most people don't make enough to save. They rely on their income only for their living expenses.

This, precisely, is the reason why they will eventually elect a government that gives them soft money (as in: the stuff you can borrow - medium of exchange).

If you, as a saver (as you say - a minority position) want to escape the easy money majority, you need to save in something other than the stuff they love to borrow, i.e. you need to save in something other than the medium of exchange.

This is FOFOA's dilemma and its solution.

Victor

Tommy2Tone said...

Haha ART. Nice try.

Motley Fool said...

VtC

Excellent usage of pigheaded refusal to think.

TF

Anonymous said...

That was a great essay from matrixsentry! Thanks! It clarified quite a few things for me.

I have one question, though. It has probably been answered in one or several of FOFOA's posts, but at the moment I can't find it.

Countless times in history, attempted gold standards have been perverted and failed. And countless times, soft money systems have gone the boom-bust way to the happy hunting grounds. Yet after none of these failures did the human super-organism "adapt organically in such a way to maximize the usefulness and potential to deliver what is needed", as matrixsentry so eloquently put it. After none of these failures did Freegold emerge. Why will it do so this time, instead of us dumb humans just launching another superficially different incarnation of an ultimately unsustainable hard or soft money system?

Why is this time different?

Tommy2Tone said...

Börjesson -
What alternatives were sitting there available for the savers to jump to?

I'd say the difference this time is some really smart people spent 30 + years thinking then building such a system to run along side the $IMF and then eventually to take the lead.

Tommy2Tone said...

And why didn't smart people come up with the alternative before now?
That's evolution baby.We weren't ready.

Motley Fool said...

Borjesson

I think these two posts contain the historic perspective you seek. (Very quick skimming; don't jump on me if I'm wrong) :)

Once Upon a Time

Peak Exorbitant Privilege

It is a matter of broad persective and taking into account the evolutionary changes our international system has undergone, from roman times, to the introduction of Real Bills, to the creation of the Bank of England, to Genoa in 1445, to the Gold Standard, to the Gold Exchange Standard, to the Dollar standard, to the creation of the Euro, to today.

It's a broad thread and nothing in life is certain, but with the recognition of this solution and the establishment of the euro, it is the next natural step.

TF

Michael H said...

Börjesson,

"After none of these failures did Freegold emerge. Why will it do so this time, instead of us dumb humans just launching another superficially different incarnation of an ultimately unsustainable hard or soft money system?"

This is a great question! I don't believe I have seen it explicitly addressed. I'll give a few brief thoughts:

1. Modern communication means that the POG is known, worldwide, instantaneously. Gold can be bought and sold in any currency at any time.

2. Modern communication and trade also means that payment must be able to travel around the world instantly. This is a great advantage of digital currency over paper or metal.

3. Oil's support for the dollar has allowed our current soft/fiat money system to maintain credibility for a relatively long time. The fiat currency's ability to expand along with the oil-powered economy made it indispensable.

4. The worldwide economy has never been as integrated as it is now. Previously, failure of a currency could be withstood by other countries, but now there must be one system for the whole world.

I'm sure others can add more.

jojo,

"I'd say the difference this time is some really smart people spent 30 + years thinking then building such a system..."

I'm sure there were equally smart people back then also.

"We weren't ready."

That's the real question: why weren't we ready then, and why are we ready now.

Anonymous said...


One more.

Art: Fiat money which the Freegolders advocate STEALS from that income through inflation.

The real value of salaries will fluctuate. It will depend on the economy, on supply of and demand for labour, on qualifications, experience, seniority, job mobility and so on.

Apart from the question of whether you'd like some safety net, say unemployment insurance - which has to be decided democratically - it is not any government's business to fix the real value of all salaries. I suppose that we don't disagree on this one.

So why do you pretend you wanted to protect the 'poor' working class from inflation of the MoE? In the places I have been (all G8 countries though), wage inflation was typically higher than consumer price inflation, i.e. the wage component of goods prices has been increasing whereas the resources component has been flat or decreasing (in spite of all the inflation talk since 2003/4, this is still true for almost all finished products).

So the claim that the fiat system would cheat the workers out of their salaries isn't supported by real world data. (It's true that unemployment is an issue though and, for example in the U.S., it has contributed to a reduction of the real value of the average wage. But this has been the case only after 2000-2003, and so it seems it has more to do with the international position of the dollar than with the use of paper money.) In summary, we all know that the real value of salaries will (need to) fluctuate. If you fix it nominally, then the real value of the nominal will fluctuate.

You are probably a saver yourself, and so it is no surprise that you would prefer a hard money system. You realize that you are part of a minority, but nevertheless you are trying to dictate your favourite hard money system to the majority, the debtors.

Don't you realize that this is a foolish attempt? They are in the majority, and they will eventually (elect a government that will) force you to accept a soft or at least devalued MoE again, once the problems that we all agree on, show up on the surface. By trying to force a hard money system on the majority, you create a conflict at some point in the future. The saver vs. the debtors.

Isn't it much more clever if you just change your own behaviour rather than trying to coerce the majority? You simply save in physical gold and lend only fiat, but not gold. This way, you achieve exactly the same for yourself, a stable way of saving for the long run, but you don't provoke any direct conflict with the debtors.

Victor

Motley Fool said...

Michael H

I'll remind you of this quote by Sir Isaac Newton.

"If I have seen further it is by standing on the shoulders of giants."

Intelligence is not the only thing required. We required experience too.

TF

Tommy2Tone said...

"That's the real question: why weren't we ready then, and why are we ready now."

That,to me, is like asking why did Homo evolve from it's predecessors roughly 2.4 million years ago? Why didn't it happen sooner? Later?

Who can say why? We witness the Super Organism evolving continually.
IMHO

enough said...

I have just been to the Post Office to mail a gold coin to a friend in Germany. I do sell bits of bullion to friends overseas as some items are easier to find here in the USA.
I was there 2 days ago and shipped no problem.

Today the Postal worker told me that USPS will no longer offer any service to ship gold, silver, platinum or Palladium out of the USA. Not in bullion or jewelry form. Not registered or express mail service. He showed me on his screen the alert that they recieved....

PROHIBITED: gold, silver, platinum, palladium

I really dont know what to make of this but I find it very unsettling.....

Motley Fool said...

enough

As the USPS is a parastatal, their mandates can likely be determined by the USG.

This is an interesting tidbit.

Could you perhaps inquire whether the private shipping companies such as FedEx have similar restrictions now?

Wondering if a law has been passed recently in the million page legislation that gets pushed through.

TF

somanyroadsinvesting said...

Its been a while. Been traveling etc.

One question had was relating to a possible 'muddle through' scenario or what Ray Dalio calls the beautiful deleveraging. Is it possible through a combination of deleveraging, tax increases, growth, inflation and productivity and technological advances we pare back down to a more normal leverage level and then can begin to expand credit again.

For example the microprocessor allowed great advances in productivity and put pressure on prices in the 80's and 90's. Also globalization caused global wages to flatten. What if there is some new big trend that comes about that counteracts the inflation from money printing. Just seems like the central planners are masters of kicking the can.

Curious your thoughts. Thanks

enough said...

MF.....

Private carriers have never INSURED the transport of "money". They will transport them but you need private insurance. FEDEX and UPS will NOT TRANSPORT MONEY only "collectibles" but if something happens and you insure a collectible and the carrier determines it is legal tender, you probably would not be covered.

Bottom line FEDEX and UPS were never an option to ship bullion unless you have private insurance. Not even domestically............

Biju said...

enough,

Thanks for your info regarding USPS shipping.

Why would USPS not handle Gold shipping now

(1) is it because shipping insurance cost does
not cover cost of claims on lost Gold. is
there any data to prove this ?

(2) US does not want American private Gold to
flow out of USA as FOFOA prognosticates. ie
in future, US private Gold will bid for
foreign flow of Good.

I don't know what is the reason.

enough said...


How to Send Gold Bullion.....not any longer !!!!


By Darby Stevenson, eHow Contributor

Safely mail pounds of gold bricks through the United States Postal Service.

Sending gold bullion from one person to another requires a certain process. Since FedEx and UPS do not offer insurance or allow gold or jewelry, it is best to ship gold bullion via the US Postal Service. Keeping this in mind, sending and insuring a package of gold bullion through the mail is hardly any different than sending any other priority mail package. If the value of the gold is over $25,000, it will need to be send via Registered Mail.


Read more: How to Send Gold Bullion | eHow.com http://www.ehow.com/how_8096927_send-gold-bullion.html#ixzz27huAyYAZ

Motley Fool said...

enough

Thanks for the reply.

A few months ago I looked at options for importing bullion. I found that it is prohibited to do so by any mail carrier here, or any international company.

One last thing. Do they have a restriction on the import of gold too? Say your friend wanted to ship some to you instead.

TF

Anonymous said...

Thanks for all the replies!

jojo: I could be wrong, but I think it has been stated several times in the discussions here that the euro isn't a prerequisite for Freegold. Are you saying that it is?

Motley Fool: I've read those posts, of course, but just like with every single FOFOA article, I haven't come anywhere near extracting all the gold from those literary ore deposits. I'll read them again!

Michael H: Very interesting points! Yes, instant global communication does change quite a few things, doesn't it? But still, it seems to me that your points all address why a fiat (electronic) system is necessary, i.e. why we won't get a gold standard. That still leaves half the question open...

DASK said...

enough and all: very interesting, please update with more. I have anecdotal evidence from spanish student friends that some spanish debit and credit cards with no balance problems are no longer (as of last week) clearing out of country.

somanyroads,

I think globally that there is something there. Although there are obviously limits, technology has been on a tear for some 200+ years. We are still producing 3-4% GDP growth globally. Problem is it is not in the west, and where the growth is (e.g. SE asia), it is heavily resource intensive. Rest of the world moving up the food chain. The reason we have some respite from inflation is sticky wages and unemployment. Anything we gain from counteracting inflation will show up as real wage gains in the rest of the world and be fed back by ever higher bids for food, commodities and gold.

The march of technology will continue, but advances that are happening in the west are not being distributed. Rentiers are taking the lions share. Aside from the paper wealth segment, there is a well paid professional class that is doing well, but every advance will be met with demands for increased spending for those on the knife's edge. We are at the limits for some resources; an interesting tidbit is that China has now reached Japan rice productivity and agricultural productivity gains are flat for the most important food commodity in the world.

The best that we can hope for in the west is to: First balance the books and attack rent seeking. Second redirecting efficiency gains to resource productivity faster than the rest of the world equalizes and bids up basic resources. Our assets are food production, the still high standard of living, relatively clean environment and (some) institutions. The overhang of debts and parasitic activity inhibits our ability to compete in a cash over barrel MTM world and has to go.

Motley Fool said...

Borjesson

If I may.

The euro as a concept is more important than the euro as a currency.

The concept was a prerequisite for the next step. Without it we would perhaps have reverted to some sort of gold standard, which would have failed very quickly, to perhaps be replaced by another fiat standard, and continued the hard money soft money cycle.

TF

enough said...

BIJU and MF,

I have no idea if I can import, didnt ask, will tomorrow when I go back to speak with supervisor.

I also have no ideas of the motivation behind this. The service I use "express" is overnight within the USA and 3-5 business days overseas.

It is the only method USPS would insure once it left US border. "Registered" is trackable but not insurable ( no matter what your local postman says to the contrary) $76 is all USPS will pay out on a lost package going beyond USA border. "Express" service was fast and insurable/trackable. It paid out and "SDR" value.

SDR value is normally 2/3 of the insured amount so I always over insured to get the 100% recovery. But Express limit insurance is $5000 so SDR value of $3300

enough said...

FYI.....

this was not a postal worker that doesnt know his job. They know me ..........

I ship alot of coins overseas. They were waiting for me, called me up to the front and a manager came out and said, we can no longer do this shipping of PM's. I said express service? and they said any service...sorry......

enough said...

we can no longer do this shipping of PM's. I said express service?

last post should read "international" shipping of PM's

Gunnar Stødle said...

enough

Maybe someone at USPS read this;)

http://skinnyreporter.com/obamagoldban.html

enough said...

I dont open links....please verify on your own, I hope I'm wrong, believe me !! West coast post offices still open......go ask

Nickelsaver said...

Gunnar,

Did you see the lower right hand corner of that page?

"...sponsor Skinnyreporter.com satire and get tons of exposure at minimum cost"

Gunnar Stødle said...

Ok sorry enough, its a joke:

Obama bans wealthy from hoarding gold

by Justin Thyme
Skinnyreporter.com

WASHINGTON, D.C. — President Barack Obama today banned private ownership of more than a quarter ounce of gold, saying the move was necessary to revive the economy.

"Wealthy Americans are bailing out on the economy by taking their money out of circulation and hoarding gold," Obama said as he signed an executive order reminiscent of Depression-era President Franklin D. Roosevelt's ban on the possession of gold.

"The wealthy are violating their trust and abusing their position by investing in gold," Obama said. "My order will put an immediate end to this practice, which threatens to hijack the good efforts of Congress and my administration, which needs at least 3 trillion dollars of additional stimulus money to maintain an acceptable rate of growth of the federal government. My motto is 'If you're not getting bigger, you're not getting better.'"

Obama made the announcement at a dais set up in the White House Rose Garden and immediately left without taking questions, his customary practice in his ongoing effort to eliminate transparency in government.

White House Spokeswoman Mary Chris Moss said all citizens must surrender their gold to federal authorities by Dec. 25 or face a fine of $335,400 and 20 years in prison.

"FDR imposed a $10,000 fine and a jail term of 10 years on Americans who refused to give up their gold in 1933," she said. "but that wasn't enough to keep most wealthy Americans from transferring their gold overseas. We have doubled the fine, adjusting for inflation, as well as doubled the jail term. President Obama's order also immediately prohibits American citizens from transferring gold to any other country, corporation, individual or governmental entity before Dec. 25."

Assistant Treasury Secretary Juan T. Richez praised Obama's order as a "brave and courageous and necessary rescue of the economy."
......................

enough said...

BTW....

In the EHOW link I posted, the gentleman was incorrect. USPS registered package traveling domestically point to point has a MAXIMUM insured value of $25,000 but again $76 (weird #) if registered travels outside USA

enough said...

FedEx and UPS Declared Value Coverage Limitations

http://blog.shipsurance.com/2010/06/fedex-and-ups-declared-value-coverage-limitations/

Michael H said...

Börjesson,

I think I can offer a better answer to 'why has freegold never emerged in the past':

Freegold hasn't emerged in the past because the necessary pre-conditions were not there. These preconditions are 1) a global easy-money currency system at the end of its use timeline and 2) another easy money system waiting to replace it.

FOFOA will have to comment on the proper interpretation of his statement that 'freegold is where we are going, with or without the Euro', but my interpretation is as follows:

[the $IMFS will end and gold will be the SoV], with or without the Euro.

The absence of the Euro is one of the reasons why freegold didn't emerge around 1971 (see precondition 2 above). The only options available to the rest of the world (ROW) at the time were a) support the dollar or b) international gold barter-town. The ROW chose a).

Should the Euro fail now, the ROW will face the same choice, only with a drastically diminished ability to offer continued support to the dollar. Eventually another easy-money system would be developed that would set gold free, but it might take several decades.

jojo,

"That,to me, is like asking why did Homo evolve from it's predecessors roughly 2.4 million years ago? Why didn't it happen sooner? Later?

Who can say why? We witness the Super Organism evolving continually."


This, to me, is a bit of a cop-out, both in financial and biological evolution.

Nickelsaver said...

Only a psychopath would continually attempt to force his belief system on a group that has summarily discredited and dismissed it.

enough said...

CONFIRMED....

USPS WILL NO LONGER ACCEPT BULLION FOR INTERNATIONAL SHIPMENT- WEST COAST BULLON DEALER FRIEND OF MINE.



enough said...

supposedly law was passed buried deep inside anti terrorism legislation few months ago and has just taken effect.

Phat Repat said...

I haven't mailed any PMs (and never intend to; the wealth belongs to me, my family, and my countrymen), however, a quick search at USPS turned up the following (note the bold sections; my highlights):

"Where can I find out if there are country-specific restrictions and weight limits on what I can mail?

The International Mail Manual lists the specific restrictions for each country in the Individual Country Listings section. The following restrictions appear for all countries and are prohibited in all Express Mail International shipments: coins, banknotes; currency notes (paper money); securities of any kind payable to bearer; traveler’s checks; platinum, gold, and silver (manufactured or not); precious stones, jewelry, (including watches); and other valuable articles."

I believe there is misinformation or misunderstanding going on here; try another post office. ;-) Or, have them provide you the circular with the verbiage. You know the Gov, there's a pamphlet/instruction/circular for that...

enough said...

Phat ...up til two days ago, one could ship express service abroad. How do I know? I did it. Those restrictions are new and exactly what I was told.

2 days ago on a customs form to canada in big bold print I wrote .9999 gold bullion and the postal worker said thank you very much. And the week before and the week before that and the weeks and months before that.

Only today was I told it's a no go.....whats the confusion? There is none.

What is another post office going to say? Seems its all there in black and white...no bullion to ship internationally. That goes for registered as well but that is moot because you cant insure it.

What is the misinformation? One day you can and the next you cant. I'm not confused? Is there a date on that manual that tells you when those rules went into effect? I can tell you without looking..........either they dont specify or it was wednesday 9/26 my good man

Phat, what is another Post office going to say different? please explain the possibilities....


Bravo for Mr Phat that doesnt sell any gold. When I can buy at +2% from my sources and sell that coin at + $25 and get extra weight, does that not sound like a good idea ? Your horde aint as phat as it could be if you haven't.

Please do tell.....misinformation?

If you dont sell gold, how do you know better than someone that actually shipped bullion 2 days ago "express" fully disclosed as such and now can not?



enough said...

2009 BI METAL ISLE OF MAN NOBLE 1 OZ. GOLD WITH 9 GRAMS SILVER RING NGC PF69 UC

Ended:

Sep 26, 201217:53:11 PDT

Sold for:

US $2,299.00

Luckily this went to MD







































Phat Repat said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Biju said...

Phat : this mudslinging is getting into level of ZH board.

Biju said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
enough said...

USPS has removed all their liability. This is dated 9/4/12 and was put into effect yesterday at my P.O. You can ship registered it seems if you accept full risk of loss as insurance on registered has been reduced to a maximum of $42. In effect making shipping with USPS internationally a crap shoot. Now no currier will insure PM's internationally from the USA. Is that a form of back door capital control?

If you make 20% on your capital, I think you should write a book or give lectures Sir Phat.....is it Amway by any chance? Sit on your phat ass and let others do the work?

Anand Srivastava said...

What I learnt from the Debtors and Savers post was that whenever Fiat failed Hard Money came back. Which was reversed later and we kept on yoyoing between them.

But now, Hard Money is not possible, because of the ease of electronic transactions. Nobody will accept hard money in this age, even for a short time.

The main reason why we will get RPG now is because there is no single dominant currency. If Euro failed then we may have a chance of getting Yuan as the reserve currency. I don't see why the rest of the world would want a repeat. I don't see any reason why Euro will fail.

There are three reasons why will have freegold now.
1) This will be a global economic crisis, where much of the paper wealth will be lost.
2) Gold will revalue to unprecedented levels.
3) Gold Standard is no longer practical, because of electronic transactions.

The first two will make sure that people save in gold, and the 3rd will make sure we don't get gold standard for balance of payments. These two will ensure that we will get freegold/RPG instead.

Phat Repat said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
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